The Real Lessons of Indo-Pak Tension 2019 from the pen of a Veteran

Without going into needless verbosity, here in bullets is my opinion about the recent Indo-Pak flareup. 

1. Pakistan has won the first round hands down both militarily and in international perception. Not only that, Modi's folly has brought the Kashmir issue back on the world stage slam bang. It needs an urgent settlement.

2. Modi's status as the leader of the largest democracy stands eroded while Pakistan's PM is overnight being seen as a statesman. Pak leadership must continue to speak softly but carry a big stick.

3. India has to learn not to give knee-jerk responses to isolated terrorist occurrences. They invariably end up with egg on their faces. In the end, talk-talk is better than war-war.

4. That Pulwama was an inside job is fast becoming known. Regardless, Pakistan must finally, and conclusively, wipe out the home grown Jihadis. Their time, if there ever was one, is far gone now. This cannot be overstated.

5. India's creaking and rusted military machine stands badly exposed. Even if they were to replace all the junk now, it would be years before they can field the new replacements by which time Pakistan would be at an even farther milestone of preparedness. We must keep the edge no matter what.

6. To win his upcoming elections, Modi by now is too far committed down the road of belligerence. Expecting him to withdraw completely means a political suicide for him. He would thus keep the mercury bobbing up and down till Indian elections are over. Pakistan, therefore, needs to keep its guard up.

7. Pakistan's CPEC is a real thorn in the Indian rib-cage because the greatest power imbalance between the two countries lies in their economies. CPEC will tend to bridge that gap, something that gives the Indians cramps in the gut. Keep CPEC going at all costs.

8. Finally, the muffled nuclear saber-rattling by Pakistan gave a very loud and clear message. In case it came to an all out shooting war and Pakistan's very existence gets threatened, our hands will reach for the red no-no button before the Indians'.....the horrendous aftermath for a billion and a half human beings not withstanding. It should run a chill down the collective spines of the regional leadership.

Needless to say even wars in the end lead to talks. Why take the war route at all.

About the author Anwar Hussain: The author has studied at PAF College Sargodha and has been part of Pakistan Air Force. From Peshawar, Pakistan, lives in Mississauga, Ontario

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Tillerson's Asian Visit: What is cooking up in India?

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's recent visit to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India raises many an eyebrow as the high ranking US official just spent a few hours each in Afghanistan and Pakistan and then embarks upon a two days visit to India.

In America's so called war on terror, Afghanistan and Pakistan should have assumed greater importance where he just happened to have touched down and fly away to India - a country the US is trying to incorporate for peace in Afghanistan, while peace in Afghanistan cannot be sustained and obtained by Pakistan.

Perhaps it was for this lukewarm visit approach by Tillerson that he apparently received a rather cold shoulder from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif and other cabinet members in Islamabad. 

As per reports, Pakistan seem to have hit back at the accusations about harboring terrorism, just as Pakistan defended its record on the matter during the recent opening of the UN General Assembly. In a press conference after the meeting, the Pakistan foreign minister categorically said that;

• “Terrorist attacks are not planned on or executed from Pakistani soil; there are no terrorist safe havens in Pakistan, and we made this clear to the US delegation today. 
• We emphasized again and again that US assessment about Pakistan is wrong. We are not responsible for the increase in the drug trade in Afghanistan or the increasing Afghan territory occupied by terrorists.
• Our armed forces and law enforcement agencies have taken action; we have yielded results and will continue to do so but not for Afghan or American interest. Our fight against terrorism is our own and the results we yield are our win”.

Analyzing Pakistan government's staff, Adam Garrie of Global Village Space remarks: Assuming the language Asif and his colleagues used behind closed doors was at least as strong as the public statement, the US should be in no doubt about Pakistan’s position.

In recent times, Pakistan, dejected by repeated accusations by the USA to do more when its armed forces have lost thousands of its officers and men in combating the terrorism, have started to realign itself to the regional stake holders like China and Russia with whom it can establish a better natural relationship being in close proximity and for the reason that they understand the dynamics of the region better than  USA sitting thousands of miles away, assuming things in a rather wrongly perceived self perspective.

The opening of China Pakistan economic Corridor (CPEC) brings Pakistan closer to China than ever before and its joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) also brings itself close to Russia. The trade relations with Russia and Pakistan are opening up every day and soon Pakistan will emerge as a strong country in the region backed by China and Russia.

America will lose more by aligning itself with India and continuing to bully Pakistan for its failure in Afghanistan. In fact the USA wants a scape goat in the form of a blamed Pakistan for its failures in Afghanistan, where despite its elite forces the Taliban control more than 45% of the Afghan territory. Its time for USA to have a save exit from Afghanistan and bringing Afghanistan and Pakistan more closer to each other rather than asking India for help, an arch rival of Pakistan and Pakistan will never accept India's role in the afghan peace process for this very reason. Even otherwise India's jumping in to steal a piece of cake will further worsen situation in Afghanistan. This flawed policy will only worsen the US position in the region.

"Were the current Indian government not so hostile to Pakistan, one could imagine Pakistan feeling some sympathy for an Indian state that is being used by the US for its own geo-strategic and military purposes. For decades, the US used Pakistan in similar ways and to a degree is still trying to do so. The difference is that Pakistan and the world around Pakistan have changed and Islamabad’s leaders are well aware of this long overdue advantage," assumes Adam Garrie.

Is USA listening??

References: Global Village Space

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