Plight of Kashmiri Muslims in Indian Occupied Kashmir

In our on going series of posts of Islam and life of Muslims in non Muslim Countries, today for this post I have made a slight modification for the plight of Muslims at the hands of Israelis and Indians in Palestine and Indian Occupied Kashmir is the worst case of human rights violation, suppression of seeking freedom and beginning of the worst kind of genocide is unparalleled and most disturbing.

The Muslim inhabitants of the Indian Occupied Kashmir, a disputed territory between Pakistan and India since their independence in 1974 is the worst case of denial of exercise of right of self determination of their future. At the time of independence, while majority Muslim population wanted to be part of Pakistan, a tacit move by the last British viceroy of India, Lord Mountbatten ceded Kashmir to India. This created lot of resentment from Pakistan and a war broke out soon thereafter between the two countries, which was halted due to UN intervention and and resulted in a ceasefire with a front solidified along the Line of Control.

The map showing the division of Kashmir across the Line of Control between Pakistan and India [Photo]

As per the provisions of UN, a plebiscite was to be held to determine the fate of the Jammu and Kashmir region. But since 1947, India has consistently denied this right to the Kashmiris and have tried to suppress their right of self determination with brute force. This has frustrated the Kashmiri Muslims and they have resorted to a long freedom struggle for their legitimate rights. And in doing so, thousands of Kashmiris have lost their lives at the hands of the Indian Army and countless have been maimed for life. 

Indian brute force suppressing voice of Kashmiris [Photo]

In recent times, the intensity of freedom struggle has picked up a greater momentum and an equally greater suppression by Indian Army. Not only many have been martyred, but use of pellet guns have left ugly scars on the bodies of freedom fighters.  

One of the countless pellet gun victims of Indian Occupied Kashmir

Indian forces have committed many human rights abuses and acts of terror against Kashmiri civilian population including extrajudicial killing, rape, torture and enforced disappearances. In 2011, the state humans right commission said it had evidence that 2,156 bodies had been buried in 40 graves over the last 20 years. 

Unarmed retaliation against armed Indian Army [Photo]

Some rights groups say close to 100,000 people have died since 1989 while the official figures from Indian sources state the estimates of number of civilians killed due to the insurgency in the range of 16,725 to 47,000 civilians, in which 3,642 civilians were killed by security forces. According to Amnesty International, no member of the Indian military deployed in Jammu and Kashmir has been tried for human rights violations in a civilian court as of June 2015.

Just recently, when there rose a hope of mediation between the two countries as promised by US president Donald Trump, the World's so-called "largest democracy" has acted in the most undemocratic way possible in illegally rescinding Article 370 on 5th August - a constitutional clause dating back to 1949 that gives Jammu and Kashmir its special autonomous status. The scale of this move cannot be overstated. Abrogating Article 370 represents a major tipping point for an already fraught dispute - and it could easily backfire on India. 

Before the announcement by Indian government and movement of large scale military troops, prominent Kashmir leader Syed Ali Gilani tweeted to the world with a heart wrenching message. The tone and choice of words says it all about the genocide of Kashmiris that is geared in coming days.

With this ugly move, Jammu and Kashmir will turn from a state to a union territory, meaning India’s central government in New Delhi will gain much more control over the area’s affairs. New Delhi is also considering splitting parts of J&K into two federal territories: the new state of Jammu and Kashmir, which will get its own legislature; and Ladakh, a remote and mountainous area that won’t get a legislature. By dispensing with the region’s autonomous status, it can formally consummate that integration and deliver a definitive blow to the region’s separatist impulses.

Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti said the decision was a "sinister one" designed to change the demographics of the only Muslim-majority state. "We have been let down by the same nation we ceded to," she said, adding that it seemed as though the state had made the "wrong choice" in aligning with India rather than Pakistan during partition in 1947.

This sinister move by Modi's India brings to forth the rejection of Two Nation Theory put forward by Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan. However when Mr Jinnah raised his voice, many Muslim leaders shrugged his suggestion and sided with India. Now after seven decades Jinnah's wisdom has started to dawn on those who though India would protect them.

The scrapping of Article 370 means a defiance to UN resolutions and holding of the plebiscite. More broadly, though, India unilaterally pushed to change Kashmir’s status without Pakistan’s buy-in. The worry now is that widespread unrest will spike in the region. Indian forces already heavily patrol Kashmir, but it has sent thousands of extra troops there in anticipation of violence, as well as closed schools, evacuated tourists, cut off internet connectivity, and put some of the area’s political leaders under house arrest. In effect, the area is on lock down.

Bodies of cluster bombs fired across Line of Control by India 

UN Observers photoing the cluster bomb shells [Photo]

Ahead of the decision, India not only deployed a large number of additional Armed troops in Kashmir, but had also stepped crossed border shelling into Azad Jammu and Kashmir. They have even used cluster bombs which were even seen by the members of UN monitoring teams. The shelling and set ablaze many houses, martyred many Kashmirs besides wounding dozens recently.

A young man holding Pakistani flag - The Bold Defiance in the face of Indian Army 

Today Modi has trashed international law and dozens of U.N. resolutions and dashed the hopes of millions upon millions of people praying for justice and peace to prevail. Modi has shown he is not a man of peace. He is a man of war who doesn't seem to realize the potentially catastrophic consequences of playing with fire.

Timothy Todd Shea, an avid contributor on Facebook, on 5th of August wrote in reaction to the Indian move to scrap the Article 370 of its constitution, which honestly reflects the aspirations of Muslims in Pakistan, Kashmir and elsewhere:

Dear People of The World, if YOU stay silent now as you have for 70 years about the atrocities in Kashmir, if you don't even try to understand the roots of this conflict, if you simply don't care about what is going on in Kashmir and this week's naked military aggression and escalation of violence and tyranny over innocent Kashmiris who have been begging for YOU to hear their cries for 70 years, then you are complicit in the crimes against Humanity that are being perpetrated by Modi and his Hindu extremist terrorist thugs.

If you are OK with India's outrageous and criminal behavior in throwing a peace offering into the burning trash can of war, then please do not complain and do not cry if and when this conflict spirals out of control and leads to a nuclear exchange which will harm you, your family and every Human Being and forever scar the face of our planet and alter the course of history.

Totally agreeing with Timothy, I would say that when it comes to a non Muslim country usurping the rights of Muslims, the world keeps silent or shows its indifference, but when a Muslim country is seen usurping rights of non Muslims, the world community acts faster than the speed of light to get them Independence. Why could this not be done in case of Kashmir for almost seven decades. The indifference of world towards plight of Muslims clearly exhibited.

Carrying the body of  fallen Kashmiri with resolve to get freedom one day [Photo]

Do watch this informative documentary of the freedom struggle by the Kashmiris and see their sentiments against the occupying Indian forces:

I do not know how would be the reaction of the world to Kashmir after this one sided notorious Indian move, and how much the world will support the Kashmirs in getting them their rights. Time will tell. But I keep my fingers crossed for I do not see justice being forthcoming in any substantial way from the world community.

Photo | References: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |

Originally posted in my blog: Islam My Ultimate Decision

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US Failures in Afghanistan - what to do?

The biggest threat to US National Security is strategic miscalculation. In Afghanistan, the battle was an internally oriented conflict; but it had a confused and open ended definition to it. The US insisted in calling it COIN (counter Insurgency Operations) when it was not. The US method to madness unfolded from one dimension to another, ignoring geography, history, culture and ideology. In their enthusiasm the United States jumped from one plan to another in search of strategy as they lumbered on, never listened to anyone while they continued to do what they thought was the way forward. Ignorance and arrogance never go together. The result that with total air supremacy, against an enemy that had no tanks, artillery or air defence; the United States manged to put themselves into a losing situation. 

The only worthwhile ally, Pakistan, who could have helped the US win this conflict and bring stability to Afghanistan was cast aside and the alliance was broken through a successful man oeuvre of manipulation by an enemy that would have made Napoleon Bonaparte swell with pride. Breaking an alliance was Napoleon’s forte and was an obvious first step that an enemy would have taken in this case too. Who was this enemy, other than our very own? The US, leader of the world, commander of all Armies now cannot whine and blame others for their own failures, they must now behave the part and take responsibility of all that came to pass. It comes with the leadership role that the US loves to play. Well here are some very obvious things that need to be explained:

1. Political

• Removal of the Taliban government, which had a Pushtun leaning. The Pushtuns represent about 50 to 60 % of the Afghan population.
• Replacing them with a Northern Alliance biased government that represented less than 40% of the people.
• Introduced a universally unacceptable constitution, hoping that it would catch on. It did not.
• Tried a reconciliation process; top down approach.
• Tried integration; bottoms up approach.
• Wanted to negotiate with the Taliban but never considered speaking to the Pushtuns. The former believe in an ideological discourse, the latter a political one. Though most Taliban are Pushtun, but a strictly Pushtun dialogue would keep out the foreign spoilers.
• Assassinated any Taliban leader willing to talk through drone attacks.
• Insisted that Pakistan arrange the negotiation and when they did, destroyed their credibility by killing Taliban commanders in Pakistan who had been asked to come for the negotiation. 
• Setting up a ‘Unity Government’; it’s neither here or there and remains a confused, artificial structure that has no jurisdiction beyond the precincts of Kabul.
• Out of the three parties, the Taliban, the government and the US, the weakest is the government. That is why this government is probably the only known government to invite a foreign occupation, because it lacks in capacity, authority and legality.

2. Military

1. Based operations on garrisoning troops. Failed to secure lines of communication and relied on air rather ground.
2. Lost liberty of action and freedom of movement by not dominating spaces.
3. Continuity in such operations is necessary and not a choice. The US rotated troops every year and as such were never familiar with the terrain or the environment.
4. The limited understanding of the combat zone cannot be made up through ‘google maps’.
5. Operations of this kind are based on accurate intel. The US depended on Northern Alliance intel and interpreters. These people let their hatred for Pakistan take them away from any meaningful information. Salalah type operations were the product of misleading the US troops.
6. Raising an Army in a few years is unrealistic, it resulted in the highest rate of desertions and causalities. The NDS has still no capacity to stand ground regardless of the ‘feel good’ propaganda emanating from TOLO News. 
7. The two areas that needed US presence was ignored despite making promises, i.e. Nuristan/Kunar valley, where the US pulled out unilaterally and Paktia where the US always complained of cross border Haqqani battle groups moving into their area.
8. Not shutting down mobile networks along the Afghan Border despite requests to do so. SIMs are still functional while Pakistan had shut theirs down a while ago. Not blocking Thuriaya Communication which is based in Dubai and can easily be controlled.
9. Not supporting Pakistani Operation in North Waziristan with a US brigade during the surge to block the border though having promised to do so through four different commands. This caused the ‘revolving door’ effect. 
10. Suffering reverses by small tactical groups and blaming Pakistan instead of holding enquiries as to what went wrong. We have not heard a single case of tactical failure being attributed to incompetence or bad procedures. It’s as if no American can do wrong, though the US have lost this war and all because of the enemy!!! A really humorous conclusion.

3. Corruption

• Please read the SIGAR report. 
• A drug trade developed under the nose of ISAF that is now doing roaring business of anything up to $80 Billion annually. No one likes to quote these figures and everyone looks the other way as if it is inconsequential. Let it be clearly understood, the Taliban are being resourced by this drug money.
• Corruption in the government has caused the people to be highly critical of it.

4. Miscellaneous 

• The ISAF found it easier to justify their failures by blaming Pakistan. The lies were repeated and broadcasted so often that the US and their Coalition partners now believe it to be true.
• Losing about 50% of the space in Afghanistan where there is no government writ. The Taliban have signed $3Billion worth of contracts with the Chinese. Why would the Taliban need space in Pakistan when the resources and the area is available to them right there?
• Bringing in India, an enemy state into Afghanistan, and then expecting Pakistan to celebrate it.
• Resisting Pakistan’s attempt at border fencing when the charge against Pakistan was cross border movement.
• Insisting that Pakistan keep the millions of Afghan Refugees, whereas Pakistan has been continually complaining of the security problems because of it.
• Blaming Pakistan for the indigenous movement in Kashmir; singing India’s song!!
• Stating that the CPEC route was going through a disputed area, whereas, such a statement was highly uncalled for.
• Inserting ISIL into Afghanistan to challenge the Taliban. Bad idea. Russia has openly stated that they support the Taliban because of this and so do Iran. The US still remains conveniently quiet on the Russo Shura and the Iranian Shura.

5. Conclusions

• That Pakistan be coerced into fighting the war for the US and ‘do more’. It is clear that it is no longer about the War on Terror but more about containing China, disrupting CPEC and supporting India. Pakistan needs to be beaten into submission in phase 1.
• Pakistan cannot find it within itself to support the US. There is not a single reason, moral, political or military where Pakistan sees its national interest being served by cooperating with the US.
• It has now come full circle and Pakistan’s national interest can only be served by a comprehensive defeat of the US in Afghanistan if things do jot change for the better. There was a time when US success was in line with Pakistan's interest; not any more.
• That the US public are not aware of what all has happened or is happening and need to be informed of how the US have bungled here in Afghanistan.
• That a public joint enquiry is recommended where US and Pakistani military commanders be questioned and must be directed to explain their positions during their respective tenures. It is guaranteed to be very entertaining. 
• The people of the United States must restrain and contain their government in taking up a highly immoral position. If democracy has any substance to it, then a mechanism has to be put into place where the other side of the story is heard as well. Do the Americans have the courage to hear the truth?

6. Future

• If Pakistan stands its ground, the US and Pakistan can improve their relations though it will take a while that both would trust each other.
• The US can be part of CPEC rather than resist it. Becoming a strategic partner with China would make better sense now than becoming a competitor in a world/region where the US is a stranger in town.
• This could be of immense value to Afghanistan as well and they too could benefit from CPEC.
• Understandably India would not get what it is looking for, but then, should the US make a fool of itself in support of India?
• The US can only benefit fro  m the current crisis by being the leader it ought to be, having the moral courage to call a spade a spade, and the wisdom to promote stability rather than chaos.

About the Author: 

Lieutenant general Tariq Khan (Retired), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), winner of the Sword of Honour from Pakistan Military Academy, graduate of the prestigious National Defense University of Pakistan, has a long experience of fighting the War on Terror in the tribal areas of Pakistan and along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. He has extensive interaction with the allied commanders employed in Afghanistan and working with top US military elite at CENTCOM. He has been one of the few Pakistan Army officers awarded with the Legion of Merit by the USA. He also has the honour of commanding one of the strike corps of Pakistan Army. He is a well read military analyst who often shares his view points, incisive and thought provoking analysis on national and international affairs. His views on international / national affairs can be read on Facebook

(The views expressed above are personal of the author and do not necessarily express the opinion of the admin of this blog)

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What must Pakistan do after Donald Trump's Tweet

The recent controversial tweet by the US president Trump against Pakistan seems a one man response as it seems that he stands alone while many others in the US tend to support Pakistan's stance and its countless efforts and sacrifices, both in human losses and material damage, to fight a war on terror that has never been its own. Pakistan has taken a heavy toll  after 'invasion' by US troops of Afghanistan as a collateral damage and effect. 

Now that the US has taken a very serious stance against Pakistan despite Pakistan have always been doing more and more as demanded by Pakistan and stopping all sorts of aid to Pakistan, Lieutenant General Tariq Khan (retired), a seasoned veteran who has had a front line experience of fighting the terrorists in the areas adjoining Afghanistan, speaks out what others in US think about Pakistan and what should Pakistan do to safeguard its interests:

Hillary Clinton said on record before the Congress that Pakistan had been let down by the US, David Petraeus, ex Director of the CIA said there was no evidence of Pakistan’s role in destabilizing Afghanistan, Chuck Hagel, while he was Secretary De fence stated, that India creates problems in Pakistan, Mattis the current Secretary defence, warned India to cool down in their support to the TTP. These were all heavy weights and there were others too in the US administration, military system and Congress who have tried to clear Pakistan’s name. It had no effect. Yet our own stalwarts are trying to find ways and means to ‘explain’ to the US government what our real position is. Others call it a ‘misunderstanding’. Such foolish scraping and fawning is probably unique to our very own alone. 

It must be clearly understood that the US is neither searching for a clarification nor is interested in seeing one. The US has decided to embark on a course of action and its decision cannot be sacrificed at the altar of the truth or reality on the ground. With a maniac as the US President, the ‘establishment’ is having a field day as they project personal agendas and spit in the face of the world. The insignificant Dana Rohrabacher and Ted Poe types find their relevance today in discovering a cause in the separation of Baluchistan. We are unreliable, we are two faced. Our stalwarts scream that we are not, our parliament is offended, our ministers are angry, everyone is disappointed and the country is shocked.

First of all, the Untied States has only done what it always does, abandon Pakistan when Pakistan is no longer needed. This should be no surprise to anyone and this fact should be clearly noted, underscored and advertised, only so that our future leaders can get the message and learn from history. Secondly, so far the United States has withdrawn monetary assistance; how can we demand that they support us financially. That is their prerogative and if they have decided to stop supporting us, why are we crying hoarse, it is neither our right nor are we employed by them. Live with it.

Now we come to this nonsense that this was not our war and that we fought for the United States. Please take into cognizance, I have been in combat the longest and during that time we cleared 35,000 sq kms out of 48,000 sq kms. We did not do this for the United States, the Indus Highway was closed, the Peshawar Airport was shut down, the KP Government was about to shift to Abbottabad, the businesses in Peshawar were moving out, our Agencies were no go, Bajaur had an Afghan flag and Afghan currency. We made deals and negotiated ourselves into every corner hoping that it would bring peace. We even disgracefully surrendered the people of Swat to Sufi Muhammad in the hope that we could ‘give peace a chance’. I saw people then shivering and quivering when militants entered Margalla Hills. 

With short memories we forget the APS carnage, we forget the attacks on our airbases and the naval Base. We ignore the attack on GHQ, we look the other way as the airport in Karachi was hit. We then have been saying that this was all because of joining the US war in Afghanistan and was the product of our policies? We cannot be more wrong, how does one explain the 2000 sectarian deaths in Pakistan before 9/11? Besides, despite being members of the United Nations and having signed the unanimous UN Resolution 1377 of 12th November 2001 which should be read by all, ours was the only Army that had no one under US Command and we never operated beyond our own territory. What do these critics want that Pakistan should have fought on behalf of the Taliban?

After all, what were the demands of the Pakistan Government to all foreigners in Pakistani territory? It was to register with the authorities, settle into designated areas and disarm or then report to centers for repatriation to their respective countries. Was this unfair? Not only did they refuse but insisted on waging war from Pakistani territory when the State had decided not to engage in Afghanistan. They said it was their right to fight a Jihad in Afghanistan. The whole story seems upside down. It’s these foreigners and our very own sold out militants who connived together for pelf and place that brought the war to Pakistan. Now we hypocritically say we have sacrificed 70,000 lives; did we do it for the United States? No, these lives were lost in the battle for Pakistan, as we secured our country against a Raw initiated insurgency and a CIA supported terrorism. We must not belittle our achievements which were the highest in the world just to win a cheap and irrelevant argument. We secured 3500 Kms of Lines of Communications, we established the writ of the government, we have cleared our areas of all militants and we did this for Pakistan and not the United States.

Our falling out with the United States is a function of a failed foreign policy. This was recognized time and again. A government without a foreign minister for four years allowed an Indian walk-over at the Capitol Hill. This has to be acknowledged and cannot be just brushed aside. Our PM, then, claimed he was the Foreign Minister, well then that’s where the buck stops. We had Haqqani as our ambassador, we had Fatmi as our advisor!!! We are further compromised because of the debt we have incurred, the money that we so wantonly stole and distributed amongst relatives and friends; that the very foundations of the State have been shaken up. The PM refused to even mention Kulbashan at the UN, Jindal turns up without a visa, Modi is invited to the PM’s house for a wedding. Well done!! Our leader entertains the enemies of the State even when they threaten to cut us into four pieces. This all then leads to the Dawn Leaks; an attempt to declare the Pakistan Army as a Terrorist Organization. Having gone through all this we are shocked when the US now withholds assistance!!!

Nowadays everyone (including me) seems to have some solution to the crisis we are going through. The diplomatic scene is out since we have nothing to offer and have exhausted any space we have had thanks to this highly incompetent government. Talking our way through in search of peace is exactly like surrendering to Sufi Muhammad in Swat. Nothing to talk about!! We need to first acquire the space for any meaningful talks. Just simply saying ‘let’s negotiate’, makes no sense and is not that easy. We are suffering the consequences of huge capacity issues in our government.

It is obvious that the US must be in the complete know that it is losing the war in Afghanistan on account of its own limited capacity and incompetence and that Pakistan is the least of the causes. Despite knowing this, it continually blames Pakistan and that serves two purposes, first, it creates a credible justification for US failure and secondly it provides the US a casus-bellie to prosecute Pakistan. It is important to understand as to why the US would want to bring pressure on to Pakistan and what are its objectives:
Regional Objectives:

• Contain Chinese economic growth.
• Challenge Russian military relevance.
• Observe Iran
• Retain regional influence through physical presence.
• Setup and support India as a proxy.
• Local Objectives. Since Pakistan is an obstacle because of CPEC and that it contains Indian influence, Pakistan has to be dealt with effectively first:
• Create conditions to denuclearize Pakistan.
• Scuttle the CPEC through Indian subversion in Baluchistan and GB.
• Reward India by allowing free license in Kashmir.
• Destabilize FATA and encourage Afghan claims using TTP and Daesh.

Conduct. To use incremental pressure, testing for effects.

• Impact on Pakistan’s economic vulnerability by withdrawing financial support and influencing international institutions for calling in the debt.
• Hoping the government would be willing to trade: financial relief for nuclear capping.
• Declare Pakistan Army a terrorist group and extend international travel bans on its personal.
• May step up drones attacks and encourage India to undertake ‘surgical strikes’ which India has already been claiming it has been doing. India thus already has a tacit approval of everyone to undertake such operations.
• Finding no credible response the US may extend bombing campaigns into settled areas with intent to create discord, lack of government writ and disharmony.
• Having created the chaos and instability, may undertake boots on ground operations and encourage separatist movements in Baluchistan and GB.

Pakistan’s responses. The first and foremost that people generally recommend is appeasement and an abject surrender. I may even go along with it, if it could save the State. It will not. The US and India will not be satisfied without attaining the objectives listed above. Thus diplomacy, talking etc. may sound good in a drawing room discussion, may prove that some of us more intellectual than the rest, but the fact of the matter is, that they will not resolve anything. Such peaceful gestures can only come after having created the grounds for diplomacy. Recommended response:

Immediate

• Reduce US presence in the country to a skeleton staff at the embassy.
• Kick out all US based NGOs.
• Renegotiate GLOCs (ground access to Afghanistan)

Concurrent

• Inform the Security Council that India by its own self-confessed statements has committed an act of war and that Pakistan retains the right to respond at a time and place of its own choosing.
• If India resorts to any more verbal surgical strikes, to physically respond in areas of Pathankot, Madhupur, Jammu etc.
• Also bring to the Security Council’s notice that US has threatened Pakistan militarily with unilateral action and that Pakistan has the right to self-defence.
• Inform Afghanistan that any act of hostility would trigger a response at Jalalabad, Kandahar, Kabul and Bagram.

Future

• Find common interest with Iran.
• Speed up Russo-Pak military collaboration.
• Enhance Chinese involvement along Kashmir.
• Begin an aggressive Kashmir campaign.
• Stock up on fuel and food starting now.
• Work out a debt retirement scheme through a credible and honest programme involving the people of Pakistan.
• Begin a proper accountability to bring closure to Memo gate, Dawn leaks, Kargil operations, Abbottabad Commission, theft and corruption.
• Structure a proper lobby team to build the country’s relevance and image

The US may not be ready for a physical fight beyond a certain escalation. Measured confrontation may force the US to step back. I used the term incremental pressure above. It was deliberate. At every stage where the US is not challenged, the pressure will shift and increase, step by step. By putting out our best foot we may be able to bring them to the table for talks which is what everyone wants. Talks are only done when there is mutual respect. No one respects a loser. For now its brinkmanship and we need to see who is going to blink first. 

If the US is willing to come to some understanding we can offer them assistance in an honourable withdrawal, a role in the CPEC, business opportunities in the country. It is not necessary to fight the US if it can be helped. However, acquiescing is not the answer and we must not sell our selves short as we usually do. We have to go through some difficult times but that is what nations are made up of; to stand up for themselves, their sovereignty and their independence. I am convinced if we stand up to the US our relations can improve. 

On the other hand, there is a lot of cleaning up to do at home as well, without which we can never be sovereign nation and first and foremost is to remove all maulvi influence. They shall never let this country be independent, self-sustaining and respectable. Religion has no place in the affairs of States and the sooner we realise this the quicker we shall be on the way to redemption. Catering to a belligerent but semi educated, opinionated preacher will always bring us into an ideological conflict not only amongst ourselves but with everyone around us. We shall be fighting a never ending Jihad. The best service we can do for Islam is to follow it in our individual sense and not pass judgments on others. Till religiosity is not removed from our political, administrative and diplomatic policies we shall always be hostage to the maulvi who has brought us to where we are.

About the Author: 

Lieutenant general Tariq Khan (Retired), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), winner of the Sword of Honour from Pakistan Military Academy, graduate of the prestigious National Defense University of Pakistan, has a long experience of fighting the War on Terror in the tribal areas of Pakistan and along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. He has extensive interaction with the allied commanders employed in Afghanistan and working with top US military elite at CENTCOM. He has been one of the few Pakistan Army officers awarded with the Legion of Merit by the USA. He also has the honour of commanding one of the strike corps of Pakistan Army. He is a well read military analyst who often shares his view points, incisive and thought provoking analysis on national and international affairs. His views on international / national affairs can be read on Facebook

(The views expressed above are personal of the author and do not necessarily express the opinion of the admin of this blog)
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Next Gulf War – Iran

By Brigadier Nadir Mir

The Next Gulf War is about the Middle East Dominance. Qatar may be the Casus Belli of the Next War Iran or maybe not.

The Gulf has become the Centre of Gravity of Larger Middle East. Parts of the Middle East are Destroyed, parts in Turmoil and parts Opulent. Whoever controls the Gulf Region, controls Oil, Gas, influences Israel, Conservative Arab Monarchies or Revolutionary Iran. USA stands challenged; Russia is back and Non State Actors galore with ISIS – Daesh spreading. 

In 2011, I wrote an article published in Pravda Moscow. ‘Next War – Iran’. This was War between Israel and Iran which was averted! In my book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ published 2013, sub chapter was titled – ‘Iran on the March and Arab World Part Opulent Part Turmoil’. In 2015, I was invited from Pakistan to attend Manama Dialogue at Bahrain for Gulf Security, hosted by International Institute of Strategic Studies – one conclusion ‘Next Gulf War’ a matter of time. 

A complicated scenario because too many contenders with clashing and often unattainable aims. Many Gulf Commentators are biased and not pragmatic, only unbiased analysis can lead to positive outcome:

USA wants to retain Hegemony in the Gulf and Middle East which is slipping. American aim is to sell Massive Arms, (Military Industrial Complex), retain stable and free flow of Oil, Dollar Monopoly, Israel secure forever, and Arab Monarchies secure for now. Make America Rich Again by transferring part of the Gulf Wealth to USA. To secure Israel and Arab Monarchies, Check Russia, Iran is the Next War. Iran has recently rejected the US Dollar. This is crossing an American Red line as US Dollar Hegemony leads to Global Dominance. Kissinger can hear the Drums of War, since he set the Drum Beat – Petrodollars in the 1970s. Saddam tried Euros in place of Dollars. Gaddafi wanted Dinars to replace Dollars, their Fate is History.

Iran wants to be the Leader of the Gulf and the Middle East. It is a Rejectionist State which wants to destroy Israel and oust America from the Gulf and Middle East. Iran is in clash with Sunni Gulf Arab Monarchies. A Combined Clash of Historical Arab – Persian and Current Monarchies – Revolutionaries. Iran is united with fervor, Motivated to fight, Excels in Asymmetrical and Missile War. Backed by Russia to an extent and with Local Militant, Non State Actor Allies. It is a Proud and Cultured Nation, however, lacks the resources to dominate the region. If an all out war breaks out it could inflict Heavy Damage but will come to Grief against the combined resources of Saudi – GCC/Allies, Israel, US, EU. 
Saudi Arabia – GCC/Allies

Saudi Arabia considers itself the Natural Leader of the Gulf and Middle East. The Obama Presidency Cool Relations have been rekindled by warmth of Trump Administration. President Trump’s Team and Saudi Arabia/GCC less Qatar are determined to halt Iran in its tracks. Wrestle back Dominance of the Gulf and Middle East from Persian to Arab hands. It uses its endless Petrodollars and Bedouin Wisdom to achieve Geopolitical Ends. It cannot alone defeat Iran, or dominate the region, and needs Allies. Considers the Pakistan Military as the most Powerful Regional Force and seeks its Support.

China, EU and Japan all retain key economic interests in the Gulf and the Larger Middle East. They may not be Direct Military Participants except NATO in case of a Larger Iran Conflict.

Turkey: Aspiring Leader of Muslim World. A Rising Economy of a Beautiful County. Over all has a balancing role, closer to Pakistan. Its biggest fear is Kurdistan. It will position itself in a manner to influence all sides seeking peace in the region. 

Russia is back in the Gulf – Middle East Game and its making up for lost time since Soviet Union Days. Russia will support Iran to embroil USA in another Protracted and Bloody War. Draining America and forcing its withdrawal from Gulf – Middle East or seek concessions in Europe and elsewhere. Russia lacks the resources to dominate Gulf – Middle East itself, but it has positioned itself as a Geo strategic Player in the Region.

Israel considers Iran as the Existential Threat, aided by Allies Hezbullah and others. It is determined to destroy Iranian Nuclear Infrastructure and deny Iran the Bomb at all cost. It has been preparing for Iran War with Air, Missile and Submarines Attacks. (Read detailed article, ‘Next War Iran’ published in Pravda Moscow by Brigadier Nadir Mir – 2011 on Google). Obama Presidency never gave Green Light for Israel’s Strike. Now Israel feels emboldened by President Trump’s Policy and seeks cooperative relations with Arab States to Defang Iran. 

Daesh and Non State Actors: Major State Actors are supportive of their own suited Non State Actors in the Gulf – Middle East. However, though squeezed on many fronts, Daesh is spreading out for Gulf, Larger Middle East and other parts of the world. War and destruction is the catalyst for more militancy and terrorism.

Pakistan should make efforts for Gulf Peace and Avoid War. Mediation along with Turkey maybe helpful. Pakistan must Defend Saudi Arabia, (more so, the Holy Sites) but not fight Iran. A Delicate Diplomatic Tightrope. Pakistan should supply humanitarian aid through Pakistan border to Iran. Retain leverage on both sides and coordinate with China, Russia and USA for Peace. Pakistan cannot remain so called Neutral or Aloof in a Major War on its Western door step which can threaten CPEC – Gwadar. (With 4 million Pakistanis sending remittance from the Gulf and oil flow essential for Pakistan’s Economy). 

In my article, ‘Pakistan New Gulf Player at Gwadar’, it had been highlighted that Pakistan’s role is Crucial for Gulf Peace. Pakistan has critical Geo-economic and Geo-strategic interests in the Gulf. Visits and role of Pakistan's Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is Essential and Commendable for securing Pakistan’s Interests. Pakistan must also monitor Indian Developments in the Gulf as Indians are already positioning themselves in Afghanistan. Pakistan should also be prepared against possible Indian Misadventures during a Major Gulf War – Crisis.

About the author:
Brigadier Nadir Mir (R), Soldier – Scholar – Reformer 
Author of the books “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
He is the Chairman of Pakistan National Reform Movement (PNRM).
PNR Movement is Nationalist (Pro Pakistan) and Reformist (Pro People).
Unite Pakistan, Defend Pakistan, Reform Pakistan 
(PNRM)

Photo: Pixabay

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Cold peace with India

Nadir Mir

Pakistan and India need to opt for ‘cold peace’. Here it would imply peace, but no friendship between the two countries. The recent clashes in Kashmir, the threat of India’s cold start doctrine, the Kargil controversy and Kashmir Day celebrations in Pakistan make it amply clear why friendship cannot be maintained between them.

Indeed, it would be ridiculous to expect that they can have an amicable relationship without resolving the core issues. The animosity between Pakistan and India is a thousand years old, enhanced by seven decades of nationalistic programming. This geopolitical narrative cannot simply be wished away.

Pakistan’s problem: The root cause of adverse relations between the two neighbouring countries is Kashmir. Now, the river waters emanating from there have become even more critical for Pakistan.

The Kashmir freedom struggle cannot be extinguished by India’s brutality. The atrocities committed on hapless Kashmiris have been highlighted by several sane Indian columnist and political activists one of whom is Arundhati Roy. This has not only alienated the Kashmiris for good, but also antagonised the people of Pakistan.

Pakistan wants Kashmir, along with its people and rivers, returned to it. That, besides solving the problem, would mean the acceptance of the Two-Nation Theory by India.


India’s problem: An over sized geopolitical agenda has been New Delhi’s major issue. Its reluctance to accept the Two-Nation Theory, occupying Kashmir and now ‘global India’ are all manifestations of the same.

India has fought several wars against Pakistan and one with China, besides having problems with smaller neighbouring countries. It can become a big economic power considering its potential. However, conflict with its neighbours will retard its growth. India’s war with Pakistan and China, or even with one of them, will destroy everybody.

Also, without resolving the Kashmir issue, India cannot befriend Pakistan. So, it should relent on the disputed valley and make peace with Islamabad.

War avoidance: The first issue, however, is to avoid the threat of war between Pakistan and India; friendship can come later. For this, efforts should be made from both sides; they must seek peace.

‘Peace’ is the only option. Pakistan faces many internal problems that need to be resolved. Therefore, it is unlikely to provoke India that may lead to a war-like situation. Meanwhile, India needs to abort the cold start doctrine. The notion that space exits below the nuclear threshold for war fighting between Pakistan and India is not only absurd, but also suicidal.

Apparently, a conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours can quickly become an existential problem. Cold start or an Indian surprise attack on Pakistan can lead to a catastrophe. Not that the Indian army can defeat or conquer Pakistan, but it can initiate a nuclear war. Even the initial use of tactical nuclear weapons can lead to a strategic nuclear exchange.

War as an instrument of state policy is not doable. Especially, a nuclear war is neither winnable nor survivable! Building nuclear shelters in Kashmir can neither save Pakistan nor India, in case of a nuclear holocaust. Pakistani and Indian nuclear arsenals can utterly destroy not only each other, but also the world. Hence, avoiding war is the best recipe to avoid a nuclear war.

Conflict resolution: Permanent peace can be achieved only through conflict resolution.

• Firstly, Kashmiris must be given the right to choose their destiny.
• Secondly, brutality committed by the Indian security forces in Kashmir must end, which is increasing hatred and making the resolution of conflicts difficult.
• Thirdly, the arms race between Pakistan and India must be controlled. Defence budgets must be limited so that more funds are available to both the countries for eliminating poverty. Even though India has more money than Pakistan or greater resources, yet it cannot stop Pakistan from seeking a strategic balance. This includes a bigger nuclear arsenal, strategic alliance with China, and friendship with USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. In short, when India cannot hegemonise or defeat Pakistan, then why should it waste its resources on war-like preparations?

The view that simply a soft strategy of trade, travel and exchanges can wish away the core issues is flawed. Some Indians project the view that peace is required only by Pakistan; while others want to talk of friendship without resolving the key issues.

Logic dictates that confidence building and conflict resolution go hand-in-glove; you cannot be friends and threaten each other at the same time. The absence of conflict can itself bring friendship. It would be prudent to resolve issues, rather than brush them under the carpet. Till then, cold peace is likely to prevail between Pakistan and India.

The writer is a retired brigadier and a regular contributor to The Fire Within. He has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com

The article was published in The Nation 12 February 2013

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Indian Silent Water War and Our Annoying Silence

Although, a segment of the press is doing its 'best' to usher in a new era in the Indo Pak relations in the name of 'Aman ki Aasha,' there does not seem to be a reciprocating response from across the border in the form of any positive friendly gestures or signals.

In fact the Aman ki Aasha (longing for peace) is restricted to a few open minded groups on both sides of the border who often meet and with much fanfare in the sponsoring newspapers, make tall woes for the advancement of the relations between the two countries. But in reality the 'Aman ki Bhasha' (the language of peace) both covert and overt is something that is not only annoying, but also a source of serious concern for us in Pakistan.

While the core issue of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir remains unresolved, there is yet another emerging issue that is far more severe with disastrous ramification for Pakistan - the Silent Indian War.

Signing of the Indus Basin Water Treaty between India and Pakistan [Pakistanpaedia]

After India and Pakistan reached the historic Indus Water Treaty in 1960, jointly signed by the then Indian Prime Minister Nehru and Pakistan's president Ayub Khan, the people of Pakistan took a sigh of relief that their future generations will be water starved by India as all water headways of rivers flowing into Pakistan are located i India. We lived with this 'khush fehmi' or the happy understanding for years. But it seems the good understandings have its days numbered critically very short.

India has recently embarked upon a grand strategy, completely tangent to the Indus Basin Water Treaty, that will starve Pakistan so badly that its economy will be reduced manifold. Here in under are some of the 190 'water management projects' that have either been started or will be started soon:

Completion of Baghliar dam on River Chenab

40 dams on Rivers Chenab and Jhelum

3 large dams and another 30 medium to small dams on River Indus in Kargil and downstream

Diversion of 45% water of Indus

Inter connectivity through canal system of waters of Chenab and Jhelum

 330-megawatt Kishanganga hydro-power project across the river Jhelum centres on the diversion of water from one tributary of the river to another

Not only this, New Delhi is financing and building 12 dams on River Kabul - an important fededer of River Indus, disregarding Pakistan’s historic water rights. The damming of River Kabul will severely reduce the water level of Indus once these dams are completed.

A few words about the Kishanganga Hydro Power Project: 

Kishanganga Dam project [Map Pak defence ]

Kishanganga dam is located about 160-km upstream Muzzafarabad and involved diversion of Kishanganga (called Neelam in Pakistan) to a tributary named Bunar Madumati Nullah of Jhelum river through a 22-km tunnel. Its power house will be constructed near Bunkot in Indian held Kashmir and the water will be re-routed into the river Jhelum through Wullar Lake.

This diversion will change the course of river Neelum by around 100-km, which will finally join river Jhelum through Wullar lake near Bandipur town of Baramula district in Indian held Kashmir. Presently, Neelam and Jhelum rivers join each other near Muzaffarabad at Domail.

As can be seen from the above map, the tunneling of Kishanganga Dam is so cleverly designed upstream of Pakistan's Neelam-Jhelum hydro project so as to seriously endanger and decrease the power generation capability of the proposed 969-MW Neelam-Jhelum hydropower project by more than 20 per cent or about 100-MW.

As per Indus Basin Water Treaty, the entire water of rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab was guaranteed for Pakistan and that no storage facilities were to be built on these rivers that served as lifeline to Pakistan. But as we see, the recent clever ingress of Indian on water guaranteed to Pakistan under the UN approved Indus Basin Water Treaty, India has embarked upon the water war so cleverly and prudently that did not wake up up our concerned government quarters from their deep slumber and take appropriate steps. The hue and cry made by us on Baghliar dam was so late that the dam was already in place. even Pakistan Army sounded its concerns on the construction of said dam, but there was no response from our government to take timely action.

Recently, the ADB and World bank have regretted funding the Bhasha Dam, due to strong Indian lobbying. Now our government finds itself nowhere to turn to except China for the funding of the dam. Which for the time being does not seem to be responding on the issue.

Major General Tahir Ali has rightly showed his apprehensions and concerns over the Indian Water War and writes:

"Though the construction of new hydroelectric power projects and dams by India on the rivers feeding Pakistan in violation of Indus Water Basin Treaty and recently proposed construction of link canals to divert water from these rivers, are extremely detrimental to Pakistan’s future, yet the lack of meaningful response to these developments by the government is beyond comprehension. Even our other political leaders, media and the masses in general are showing indifference to this issue which actually should be considered as a matter of life and death for Pakistan. No need to emphasize that control over the water of these rivers would make Pakistan totally dependent on India’s goodwill."

Despite everything said and done, our successive governments have not attended to the water issue seriously with India or with the international arbitrators and have thus lost their case thus so far.

A US Senate Committee study has concluded that "The conflict between Pakistan and India over water resources is serious enough to lead to a war is indisputable.”

It is the duty of every sane Pakistani to understand the dangers threatening Pakistan in near future with India hell-bent to carry on with its water management projects - the projects which turn the green fields of Pakistan into desert and uncultivable, depriving us even to have our domestic crops to sustain our ever expanding population.

Not only starving Pakistan through controlling the river water inflow, India would also have the capability to release excessive water into Pakistan Punjab, as was done once before, that would inundate large areas of Punjab and Sind, destroying life, property and standing crops as and when in excess of water or if the water pressure starts to threaten Indian reservoirs.

We need to apprise ourselves more on the Silent Water War unleashed by India and talk about on all forums, while our government should concentrate more on issue threatening our sovereignty and independence rather than making plans only to win votes for next elections. It is very unfortunate that such strategic issues are not deliberated in our assemblies, where petty issues of who should have immunity and how are discussed and passed as legislation just in one day.

Despite Indian covert and overt activities to starve Pakistan, we are all set to grant the MFN status to India - if granted, the entire Pakistan market will be flooded with stuff from huge Indian market, benefiting the Indian businessmen and the Indian government, while meager Pakistan exports to India will be peanuts in size and will only benefit a few in Pakistan. Ultimately it will be Pakistan which will lose rather than gaining by providing the MFN status to India.

I would also want the so called "Aman ki Aasha' proponents to deliberate such issues rather than holding cultural and musical concerts or talking on art and fashion and giving the impressions that they are bringing the two countries closer – whereas the reality is just the opposite.

But having said all this, we must also look what we are doing to conserve and store water. India has planned almost 200 water storage and energy specific projects on its rivers. But we have not been able to reach at a consensus of Kalabagh Dam and have added no worthwhile storage and power generating projects since Tarbela Dam decades ago. We should also blame ourselves for our annoying silence vis-a-vis Indian water management projects and for not doing anything to put our house in order.

I will continue to write more about what we should have done or what we need to do now for our future.

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