If Kashmiris were Christians, they would be Free Like East Timor by Now

I made this remark to a Christian friend of mine who was skeptical about Kashmirs' independence and their on going freedom movement. But he saw some weight in my argument and said may be true for Christians too are being persecuted in India.

The world conscious awakes only when interests of Christians are being harmed or they are under a Muslim dominant country. 

Recall events prior to 9/11. When America felt "threatened" after a false alarm, UN was too forthcoming to the US demand to invade Afghanistan and Iraq. And Britain was too happy to get on board the war wagons. What happened next is all open to the world. Iraq and Syria are suffering from that one bad decision of USA and a bad nod by UN. and so does Libya. Two presidents of Muslim countries were killed for no good reason.

Muslim persecution on the other hands continues in Palestine, Myanmar and China. But there is no UN resolution or no superpower stepping in to stop the killing of Muslims. 

And now it is Indian Occupied Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir has been a disputed territory between India and Pakistan since 1947 and there are many UN resolutions for its solution. But the world has never tried to enforce the resolutions to solve the Kashmir issue as per aspirations of the people of the Kashmir. The reason is simple: Muslims are in minority and Hindus in majority. No one in the world dares asking Hindu India to solve the Kashmir issue for they have economic interests in India. 

Even some of the Muslim countries have chosen not to support the Kashmiri freedom struggle for fear of losing Indian markets. Even USA has labelled Kashmiri freedom fighters as terrorists for they do not want to displease a large non Muslim Hindu country which are obvious friends of all non Muslim countries.

Now that Kashmir is under siege for almost 20+ days, world conscious continues to sleep for interests of non Muslims are not at stake. Had these been, Kashmir would have been liberated like East Timor and Sudan.

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

The Kashmir Conundrum

Time to come out of silence and add to the confusion of the Kashmir Conundrum. How does Pakistan view the changed status and what can it do about it? How do the Indians, largest democracy on earth, view it?  First and foremost, what’s happened in Kashmir is not on account of any deliberate policy implemented by any political party, so to go forward we need to stop scoring political points at home and thus focus on the issue rather than waste time in dramatic rhetoric. Second, is the philosophy of the new buzz word; ‘there is no military solution’. Tell this to the Taliban and ask them to sweet talk their way through the present negotiations if the solution lies in just talks. I would draw one’s attention to the fact that it was the Taliban military prowess in the field that led to these negotiations; neither did they ask for these negotiations nor are they in any hurry to conclude them. Why would the Taliban forfeit their only strength and agree to a ceasefire where they will lose out on the negotiating table; I think anyone can see this. 

The evolution of the environment unfolded with a rejection to the offer of talks proposed by the Taliban (The US said it would never negotiate with terrorists) this was followed by an ‘integrated’ approach - it failed, then a ‘reconciliation strategy’; that failed as well, then to force the Taliban to the negotiating table (slap them to the table is what they said). Yet something changed on the ground for the US to abandon the sitting government and begin unilateral talk with the Taliban. Let me assure all it was not an outcome of political discussions. If the Taliban agree to negotiations after a ceasefire, they will be ousted from power in any future setup; an obvious outcome.

So similarly, if anyone feels that political and diplomatic steps will free Kashmir from Indian intent, I can assure them, this is not going to happen in the near or distant future. It’s as if someone occupies a bedroom in your house, is living comfortably with nothing to disturb them and you begin to negotiate with them to leave, trying to convince them that it is better for them to give up the room. This will never happen till the pain you impose on the intruder is more than the comfort he is enjoying. Without the pain being there the normal term for the situation is ‘appeasement’, ‘surrender’, ‘capitulation’ or ‘indifference’ but it would never be defined as an activity leading to some sort of an end through a political solution. Thus there are struggles and there are causes but one needs to understand what is the definition of Freedom Struggle. 

I certainly am not privy to what our government is doing nor what it is planning to do but I do know that whatever it is - it cannot be debated on the street and that these are not matters that are discussed in public. Yet I am confident of the Government as well as the Establishment that something is afoot and that we shall learn of it in the times to come. Kashmir, as it stands now, is not a done deal and there is much more to come. When it does, we should all stand by the Government and the Armed Forces, whatever their choice of instrument, method and conduct and hope for a favourable outcome.

In my limited understanding, the Indian Supreme Court, remains a valve that can release the pressure. In my understanding the Modi Government is still testing the water and if given a proper response, may even encourage the Supreme Court to reverse BJP’s decision. This would allow them some political mileage which they are always in search of, i.e. ‘after all they tried but the Supreme Court was a hurdle’. The question is can we apply that pressure, through all channels, diplomatic, political, administrative, resistance movements and military escalation –  and are we even willing?

So whereas, I am not recommending a war though that too might be an option, nevertheless, we need to do more. Our diplomatic initiatives are good and must continue, our political stance is correct and must be pursued but where is the pain? One understands the international position on non-state actors and freedom fighters etc. – but which is one and not the other? One needs to bring up this matter up at the Security Council, as to when does society and a population get up and resist a human rights matter, suppression, genocide, rape and ethnic cleansing? Does the Security Council want such nations to just roll over and die?  If not what then remains the manner of resistance in the face of 500,000 armed troops or should there be a resistance at all? Should there be any resistance where communication, mobility and political activity and free speech are denied under the barrel of the gun?  What should the security council do if the United Nation Resolutions are violated and how should these be implemented if they are? Does Pakistan have a moral right to intervene physically and if not, what is the alternative? Is there a timeline and an end state or will this aberration hold the region hostage forever? One thing is certain, the United Nations and Security Council have never respected the meek or those who try to invoke decisions based on sympathy and self-pity. Remember, it is famously said, sovereignty is defined as the things one is willing to fight for; the rest is not sovereign - just rhetoric!

I understand that these arguments are an appeal to the moral and ethical values that the world may have; they may be a lonely cry for justice from the international community and that the world is neither obliged nor affected enough to respond to in any way. In fact, history has shown that the United Nation always sides with might and not with the propriety of the issue. What happened to the War Crimes committee that was denied entry to the US, or what was the outcome of the false claims of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Thus nothing will happen here as well regardless of what diplomacy we do or what political solution we discover. The pain must be there - could be the oil movement or could be the right to self-determination snatched by force or even a Sikh Separatist chaos. For giving pain to the globe, the ocean lies before us to disrupt trade. In the event of supporting a legal separatist movement, dividing the Indian occupation forces in to penny packets in a mountainous area, paralyzing communication and entrapping troops in isolated pockets, is the most feasible option. 

The more Indian troops, the merrier and greater the imbalances in the South along the international border which must be exploited with full force and determination by total mobilization and assembly of forces. After all Sri Lanka expelled India too, just as Vietnam did to the US, the freedom fighters did to the Soviets and the Taliban have done to the US. I have failed to see the political solution in any of these resistances and I would strongly recommend that lets not pursue a line because it sounds good – it is simply not realistic. People will talk of economy, others of international isolation but no one was as devoid of economy as the Afghans or isolated as the Taliban. Arguments must be universal and not selected pieces of wisdom. 

The matter of Kashmir needs to be resolved, the world needs to be put on notice that matters will go forward and that we have very little to lose -  is the world willing to bear the cost and does India have the will and determination to stand up to such a resistance?..

About the Author :

Lieutenant General Tariq Khan (Retired), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), winner of the Sword of Honour from Pakistan Military Academy and is a graduate of the prestigious National Defense University of Pakistan and has a long experience of fighting the War on Terror in the tribal areas of Pakistan and along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. He has extensive interaction with the allied commanders employed in Afghanistan and working with top  military elite at CENTCOM. He has been one of the few Pakistan Army officers awarded with the Legion of Merit by the USA. He also has the honour of commanding one of the strike corps of Pakistan Army. He is a well read military analyst who often shares his view points, incisive and thought provoking analysis on national and international affairs.

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

Plight of Kashmiri Muslims in Indian Occupied Kashmir

In our on going series of posts of Islam and life of Muslims in non Muslim Countries, today for this post I have made a slight modification for the plight of Muslims at the hands of Israelis and Indians in Palestine and Indian Occupied Kashmir is the worst case of human rights violation, suppression of seeking freedom and beginning of the worst kind of genocide is unparalleled and most disturbing.

The Muslim inhabitants of the Indian Occupied Kashmir, a disputed territory between Pakistan and India since their independence in 1974 is the worst case of denial of exercise of right of self determination of their future. At the time of independence, while majority Muslim population wanted to be part of Pakistan, a tacit move by the last British viceroy of India, Lord Mountbatten ceded Kashmir to India. This created lot of resentment from Pakistan and a war broke out soon thereafter between the two countries, which was halted due to UN intervention and and resulted in a ceasefire with a front solidified along the Line of Control.

The map showing the division of Kashmir across the Line of Control between Pakistan and India [Photo]

As per the provisions of UN, a plebiscite was to be held to determine the fate of the Jammu and Kashmir region. But since 1947, India has consistently denied this right to the Kashmiris and have tried to suppress their right of self determination with brute force. This has frustrated the Kashmiri Muslims and they have resorted to a long freedom struggle for their legitimate rights. And in doing so, thousands of Kashmiris have lost their lives at the hands of the Indian Army and countless have been maimed for life. 

Indian brute force suppressing voice of Kashmiris [Photo]

In recent times, the intensity of freedom struggle has picked up a greater momentum and an equally greater suppression by Indian Army. Not only many have been martyred, but use of pellet guns have left ugly scars on the bodies of freedom fighters.  

One of the countless pellet gun victims of Indian Occupied Kashmir

Indian forces have committed many human rights abuses and acts of terror against Kashmiri civilian population including extrajudicial killing, rape, torture and enforced disappearances. In 2011, the state humans right commission said it had evidence that 2,156 bodies had been buried in 40 graves over the last 20 years. 

Unarmed retaliation against armed Indian Army [Photo]

Some rights groups say close to 100,000 people have died since 1989 while the official figures from Indian sources state the estimates of number of civilians killed due to the insurgency in the range of 16,725 to 47,000 civilians, in which 3,642 civilians were killed by security forces. According to Amnesty International, no member of the Indian military deployed in Jammu and Kashmir has been tried for human rights violations in a civilian court as of June 2015.

Just recently, when there rose a hope of mediation between the two countries as promised by US president Donald Trump, the World's so-called "largest democracy" has acted in the most undemocratic way possible in illegally rescinding Article 370 on 5th August - a constitutional clause dating back to 1949 that gives Jammu and Kashmir its special autonomous status. The scale of this move cannot be overstated. Abrogating Article 370 represents a major tipping point for an already fraught dispute - and it could easily backfire on India. 

Before the announcement by Indian government and movement of large scale military troops, prominent Kashmir leader Syed Ali Gilani tweeted to the world with a heart wrenching message. The tone and choice of words says it all about the genocide of Kashmiris that is geared in coming days.

With this ugly move, Jammu and Kashmir will turn from a state to a union territory, meaning India’s central government in New Delhi will gain much more control over the area’s affairs. New Delhi is also considering splitting parts of J&K into two federal territories: the new state of Jammu and Kashmir, which will get its own legislature; and Ladakh, a remote and mountainous area that won’t get a legislature. By dispensing with the region’s autonomous status, it can formally consummate that integration and deliver a definitive blow to the region’s separatist impulses.

Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti said the decision was a "sinister one" designed to change the demographics of the only Muslim-majority state. "We have been let down by the same nation we ceded to," she said, adding that it seemed as though the state had made the "wrong choice" in aligning with India rather than Pakistan during partition in 1947.

This sinister move by Modi's India brings to forth the rejection of Two Nation Theory put forward by Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan. However when Mr Jinnah raised his voice, many Muslim leaders shrugged his suggestion and sided with India. Now after seven decades Jinnah's wisdom has started to dawn on those who though India would protect them.

The scrapping of Article 370 means a defiance to UN resolutions and holding of the plebiscite. More broadly, though, India unilaterally pushed to change Kashmir’s status without Pakistan’s buy-in. The worry now is that widespread unrest will spike in the region. Indian forces already heavily patrol Kashmir, but it has sent thousands of extra troops there in anticipation of violence, as well as closed schools, evacuated tourists, cut off internet connectivity, and put some of the area’s political leaders under house arrest. In effect, the area is on lock down.

Bodies of cluster bombs fired across Line of Control by India 

UN Observers photoing the cluster bomb shells [Photo]

Ahead of the decision, India not only deployed a large number of additional Armed troops in Kashmir, but had also stepped crossed border shelling into Azad Jammu and Kashmir. They have even used cluster bombs which were even seen by the members of UN monitoring teams. The shelling and set ablaze many houses, martyred many Kashmirs besides wounding dozens recently.

A young man holding Pakistani flag - The Bold Defiance in the face of Indian Army 

Today Modi has trashed international law and dozens of U.N. resolutions and dashed the hopes of millions upon millions of people praying for justice and peace to prevail. Modi has shown he is not a man of peace. He is a man of war who doesn't seem to realize the potentially catastrophic consequences of playing with fire.

Timothy Todd Shea, an avid contributor on Facebook, on 5th of August wrote in reaction to the Indian move to scrap the Article 370 of its constitution, which honestly reflects the aspirations of Muslims in Pakistan, Kashmir and elsewhere:

Dear People of The World, if YOU stay silent now as you have for 70 years about the atrocities in Kashmir, if you don't even try to understand the roots of this conflict, if you simply don't care about what is going on in Kashmir and this week's naked military aggression and escalation of violence and tyranny over innocent Kashmiris who have been begging for YOU to hear their cries for 70 years, then you are complicit in the crimes against Humanity that are being perpetrated by Modi and his Hindu extremist terrorist thugs.

If you are OK with India's outrageous and criminal behavior in throwing a peace offering into the burning trash can of war, then please do not complain and do not cry if and when this conflict spirals out of control and leads to a nuclear exchange which will harm you, your family and every Human Being and forever scar the face of our planet and alter the course of history.

Totally agreeing with Timothy, I would say that when it comes to a non Muslim country usurping the rights of Muslims, the world keeps silent or shows its indifference, but when a Muslim country is seen usurping rights of non Muslims, the world community acts faster than the speed of light to get them Independence. Why could this not be done in case of Kashmir for almost seven decades. The indifference of world towards plight of Muslims clearly exhibited.

Carrying the body of  fallen Kashmiri with resolve to get freedom one day [Photo]

Do watch this informative documentary of the freedom struggle by the Kashmiris and see their sentiments against the occupying Indian forces:

I do not know how would be the reaction of the world to Kashmir after this one sided notorious Indian move, and how much the world will support the Kashmirs in getting them their rights. Time will tell. But I keep my fingers crossed for I do not see justice being forthcoming in any substantial way from the world community.

Photo | References: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |

Originally posted in my blog: Islam My Ultimate Decision

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

Indo-Pakistan Escalation 2019 - What Next?

The recent escalation between India and Pakistan due to Indian incursion of Pakistan air space that finally resulted into shooting down of two Indian aircraft ad capturing of an Indian air force pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, de-escalation appears underway between India and Pakistan. The aftermath of Pulwama incident in Indian occupied Kashmir was a steep climb on the escalation ladder. Pakistan’s release of India’s pilot as a peace gesture was meant to scale down the war mongering from across the border. Concurrently, the global diplomacy for restraint and peace is also on going to restrain the two atomic wars from any further misadventure that may escalate into a full scale war with no end. This escalation round can be claimed as Win Win by both sides. On Pakistan side performance based and on Indian side make believe – Bollywood style!

Pakistan can feel gratified that it won the round and Indian aggression didn't intensify. Yet complacency can be counterproductive. In 1965 war, Pakistan claimed victory, went to sleep and awoke in 1971 war to lose East Pakistan. Indian perfidy and duplicity can be taken for granted, therefore watch word for Pakistan "Eternal vigilance on Eastern Frontier”_ against existential enemy India.

But that was for now. But what next? This opium of friendship with India must end. There is no doubt that there cannot be no peace ever between India and Pakistan unless the Kashmir issue is resolved for Kashmir is part of Pakistan, tacitly snatched away by India at the time of independence in 1947 with support of the leaving British. And this goes without saying that India will remain an enemy state unless it amicably resolves Kashmir issue.

Here are some guidelines for future ties with India and to remain vigilant for an misadventure from the war crying Indian prime minister and his militant BJP:

• Policy -'Cold Peace’ is suggested, not friendship.
• Kashmir - Pakistan should call for withdrawal of Indian military, security tyrannical forces from Kashmir. Need to globalize Kashmir freedom struggle.
• Geopolitics - The world treated both India and Pakistan equally in this crisis. Pakistan geopolitical value compensates for India size advantage. A Prudent Pakistan geo-strategy of balancing ties with USA, China, Russia and Saudi GCC, Turkey, Iran and others has paid dividends. Pakistan Army Chief General Bajwa deserves most credit for that.
• Diplomacy - The government and FM Mr. Qureshi worked strenuously for Pakistan’s cause. Yet years of foreign policy neglect, Indian demonetization of Pakistan, and meek Pakistani diplomacy took its toll. No nation openly supported Pakistan in the coming war except Turkey. People of Pakistan had great expectations from China. Yet USA under President Trump helped diffuse. The Chinese may have supported quietly, but the Pakistani nation expects overt support. _Present global diplomacy is to defuse but if war breaks out who will support Pakistan?_ Pakistani diplomacy should build alliances which can prove supportive during crisis or war times.
• War with India will be neither 1965, nor 1971 nor even War On Terror. It includes all facets, all spectrum. It could be sub conventional, conventional hyper intensity, nuclear total, economic, cyder, media, social media, diplomatic, and geopolitical. LOC Kashmir to global capitals the battles will be raged and waged.

As for Pakistan, we have come up with a resilience that neither India nor the world ever expected:

• Nation in crisis- Pakistan emerged united, ready to fight a defensive war of national survival. India began to disunite as crisis deepened.
• Pakistan strengths and war needs*
• Pakistan Air Force is supreme but India will strike back. Already Modi was lamenting the absence of Raffle fighters in IAF. PAF deserves better planes and Pakistan needs long range SAMs like S-400, HQ-9 etc. Pakistani pilots’ pride of the nation proved their mettle. If the PAF achieves air superiority earlier on then Cold Start or any other Indian land or sea offensive is doomed.
• The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan played a silent but pivotal role in Pakistan defense. It is indeed Pakistan’s Great Equalizer. 
• Conventional Balance- Pakistan military balance deters India. India is absorbing Raffle fighters, S 400 missiles, Apache Attack helicopters and other high tech equipment for the next round. Pakistan must not allow conventional military balance to tilt. Since China opted not to threaten India. It should help arm Pakistan to the teeth with latest hyper tech. Pakistan should demand that from China. Conventional military balance will also delay the penchant for first use and obviate a nuclear holocaust. 
• Geo-economics and Geo-strategy: My first book Gwadar on the global chessboard is on geo-economics which is the buzz word but second book Geopolitic Pakistan is on geostationary. Balance of development and defense needs to be maintained, since India remains eternal enemy. 
• Nuclear and Missile Deterrence: Pakistan nuclear deterrence both tactical and strategic is the ultimate retribution. Pakistan’s full spectrum nuclear response is inclusive of tactical usage, counterforce and counter value strikes. Conventionally armed missiles come earlier on the lower rung of escalation ladder, as the great vulnerability of Indian cities has been exposed. The specter of even a few conventional missile strikes on a dozen Indian cities would drive away all investments and bring the Indian economy tumbling down many fold. 
• Media, Social Media and Cyber war: The DG ISPR performance was exceptionally good. Pakistani media nationalistic yet balanced and Pakistan’s social media came of age. Indian media stood discredited. In peace time and in war media in all forms is the key to victory besides the success of armed forces.
• Civil Defense and Preparation for War: While Pakistan India armed forces clashed and were alert, there was scant preparation for civil defense on both sides. Pakistan political elite instead of talking friendship with India should prepare the nation for a high intensity, extremely lethal war which will result in tremendous civilian casualties. The military being prepared is not enough since the entire nation will be at war and facing the brunt.

Following are my concluding remarks:

• Besides supporting Kashmir Pakistan should also support the Concept of Khalistan as a neutral buffer state between India and Pakistan. This is the geopolitical requirement of peace and will be elaborated in a subsequent article.
• And while preaching peace, deterring war Pakistan should also prepare the nation in case Indians cross the Rubicon next time
• Mere teaching peace may not bring peace but preparing the whole nation for war may bring peace.

Author: Brigadier Nadir Mir (R), Chairman (Pakistan National Reform Movement (PNRM), soldier, scholar, reformer. Author of books: Gwadar on the Global Chessboard, Geopolitik Pakistan

Source | Photo

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

The Real Lessons of Indo-Pak Tension 2019 from the pen of a Veteran

Without going into needless verbosity, here in bullets is my opinion about the recent Indo-Pak flareup. 

1. Pakistan has won the first round hands down both militarily and in international perception. Not only that, Modi's folly has brought the Kashmir issue back on the world stage slam bang. It needs an urgent settlement.

2. Modi's status as the leader of the largest democracy stands eroded while Pakistan's PM is overnight being seen as a statesman. Pak leadership must continue to speak softly but carry a big stick.

3. India has to learn not to give knee-jerk responses to isolated terrorist occurrences. They invariably end up with egg on their faces. In the end, talk-talk is better than war-war.

4. That Pulwama was an inside job is fast becoming known. Regardless, Pakistan must finally, and conclusively, wipe out the home grown Jihadis. Their time, if there ever was one, is far gone now. This cannot be overstated.

5. India's creaking and rusted military machine stands badly exposed. Even if they were to replace all the junk now, it would be years before they can field the new replacements by which time Pakistan would be at an even farther milestone of preparedness. We must keep the edge no matter what.

6. To win his upcoming elections, Modi by now is too far committed down the road of belligerence. Expecting him to withdraw completely means a political suicide for him. He would thus keep the mercury bobbing up and down till Indian elections are over. Pakistan, therefore, needs to keep its guard up.

7. Pakistan's CPEC is a real thorn in the Indian rib-cage because the greatest power imbalance between the two countries lies in their economies. CPEC will tend to bridge that gap, something that gives the Indians cramps in the gut. Keep CPEC going at all costs.

8. Finally, the muffled nuclear saber-rattling by Pakistan gave a very loud and clear message. In case it came to an all out shooting war and Pakistan's very existence gets threatened, our hands will reach for the red no-no button before the Indians'.....the horrendous aftermath for a billion and a half human beings not withstanding. It should run a chill down the collective spines of the regional leadership.

Needless to say even wars in the end lead to talks. Why take the war route at all.

About the author Anwar Hussain: The author has studied at PAF College Sargodha and has been part of Pakistan Air Force. From Peshawar, Pakistan, lives in Mississauga, Ontario

Photo

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

Arundhati Roy: A brave woman exposing the machinations of Indian Prime Minister Modi

India has always boasted of its secularism since its creation and has in varying shades fooled the world of giving the equal rights to all segments of people and treating all religions as per the dictates of a secular state. But the reality is far from different. India believes in Hindutva and successive governments have always tacitly propagated ideology seeking to establish the hegemony of Hindus and the Hindu way of life.

However, in recent times, there is a rising trend to establish the hegemony of Hindus all over India and Muslims are the main target of this ideology. Since taking over the government, the present Indian Prime Minister Modi has been actively pursuing the policy of targeting Muslims and the incidents of forced conversion of Muslims to Hinduism are on the increase. Those who object or refuse to be converted are severely beaten and their properties vandalized. 

The once heavenly Kashmir, which was the main tourist attraction of the world has now been turned into a battle field for its majority Muslim populations has never reconciled with the integration of Kashmir with India, which should have in fact been merged into Pakistan at the time of the independence from the British India being a Muslim majority area. Today more than 600,000 personnel of the Indian army are stationed in Jammu and Kashmir to suppress the rightful independence struggle. 

Charged with extremist Hindu ideology, there are a very few Hindu scholars and thinkers who dare to speak out the truth and against the policies of Modi and expose his machinations to turn India into a Hindu state rather than a secular state where followers of all regions could live freely.

One such sane voice which is being heard all over the world is that of Suzanna Arundhati Roy, a brave Indian author best known for her novel The God of Small Things (1997), which won the Man Booker Prize for Fiction in 1997 and became the biggest-selling book by a non-expatriate Indian author. She is also a political activist involved in human rights and environmental causes. In 2013, Roy described Narendra Modi's nomination for the prime ministerial candidate as a "tragedy". She further said that the business houses were supporting his candidacy because he was the "most militaristic and aggressive" candidate.

In a recent interview to the BBC, she exposes the hidden agenda of Prime Minister Modi, which is being actively pursued just ahead of the Indian elections to raise the temperature and charge the Hindus to vote for him to win a majority government and then to change the Indian constitution to turn India into a purely Hindu dominated country giving no rights for followers of other religions as has been the case of a secular India. Listen to here very candid interview:

It is hoped that saner and peace loving Indians would follow her suit and side away from the militant Hindus who have already brought Pakistan and India almost at the brink of war in recent days - a war if that happens will be a tragedy for the people of both countries as it would leave behind nothing but destruction, on the ashes of which Modi and like will stand and play the flute as did Nero in olden times.

Photo | References | 1 | 2 | 3 |

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

OIC shows true face of India

The post Pulwama attack saw Indian rhetoric of blaming Pakistan within minutes of the suicide attack and has since has been hellbent to bring harm to Pakistan to 'avenge' the death of almost four dozen soldiers.

And this was followed by a cowardly act of intrusion of Pakistan air space with its state of the art Mirage-2000 aircraft and alleging to have killed more than 350 terrorist in a camp that was targeted. But it did not have photos of 350 dead to show it to the world for it was blatant lie to fool the world. 

However, the very next day, Pakistan responded and shot down two Indian air force jets and capturing one of its pilots alive. It was magnanimity on the part of the Imran Khan, the Pakistan's prime minister to have released the pilot purely on humanitarian grounds and as a gesture of good will to the war mongering Indian prime minister and its militant BJP political party.

Still not satisfied with their response to teach Pakistan a lesson, their Foreign affairs minster when called to attend the recent OIC meeting, which Pakistan rightly boycotted for India is not a Muslim country, in very cleverly worded hidden words blamed Pakistan for the unrest in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). But India got a shock of their lives.

The Kashmir resolution passed by OIC criticisms the Indian administration's role in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. It refers to the region as "Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir" and highlights alleged "human rights violations". It also endorses "plebiscite" in Jammu and Kashmir for the resolution of the dispute between India and Pakistan, emphasizing that it is the "core" dispute between the two nations.

And this has let the Indian politicians to criticize the Modi government for letting down India and Modi has been questioned for the failure of his foreign policy.

Watch the video below as see how reality is dawning in India:

In days to come we see India being isolated more and more not in the international community but also at home where people and politicians have started to question the policies of Modi, and some even holding Modi responsible for the Pulwama attack.

Photo

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

Afghanistan and Geopolitics

By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)

The single most crucial factor in Afghanistan peace efforts or end game is Pakistan’s national interest. Pakistan and Afghanistan are entwined in multi-faceted ways. Pakistan has suffered immensely since 9/11. US-NATO intervention has added two decades of mayhem and consternation to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US under President Trump, the supreme fiscal pragmatist has resolved to evict from Afghanistan. Of course the American strive for the best deal out of a lost war. The question is what does Pakistan aims for in a post-US Afghanistan?

Guarding Pakistan’s National Interests
Pakistan must project One Stated Afghan Policy. Ambiguity can be self-defeating for Pakistan. The civil-military, foreign office, think tanks, media must project one single, clear Afghan policy. The outcome of the post 9/11 Afghanistan war is evident like the day light to patriotic Pakistanis initiated in geopolitics. There is no room for vacillation or compliance on any score. 

Who won the Afghan war? 
The real winner of the Afghan conflict post 9/11 is simply Pakistan. Even though the Afghan Taliban or resistance to foreign forces did the war fighting. Russia, China, Iran even Central Asian States found US-NATO longevity of presence unwelcome. Earlier the Soviets were evicted by the Mujahideen mentored by Pakistan’s superlative ISI. This time Pakistan’s vaunted ISI would also facilitate the End Game of this chapter of the New Great Game

Pakistan is the real winner because it can secure its geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-strategic interests in post-US Afghanistan. However, before declaring victory or being drowned in the euphoria of happy geo-political tidings, a word of caution is mandated. The script for the next chapter of Afghanistan is being written, it should not be the handiwork of forces inimical to Pakistan’s interests. 

Reflection of national history also suggest that Pakistan has a legacy of betrayal by its political elite. Else the elite of the time was unworthy and missed these geopolitical opportunities. 

Lost Geopolitical Opportunities
1962 Kashmir. India was beaten by China. The Dictator of the time did not avail the opportunity of liberating Indian Held Kashmir. Persuaded by President John Kennedy and enamored by Jacqueline Kennedy the Pakistan Elite allowed the opportunity to slip out of Pakistan’s hands. By 1965 when Operation Gibraltar and later Grand Slam was launched, Pakistan found India better prepared. Even though Pakistan’s soldiers fought brilliant, bold tactical battles, the result was a strategic stalemate. Geopolitics turned against Pakistan and in 1971 Pakistan suffered terribly with the loss of East Pakistan, brought about by its existential enemy – India! 

Khalistan 1980-1990 - Khalistan was another golden opportunity to repay India for 1971. Also it would sever Kashmir and bring back Kashmir to Pakistan where it belonged. The creation of Khalistan would re-balance geo-strategic power between Pakistan and India. It would also set in motion domino effect since a dozen Indian freedom movements would be boosted. Khalistan was betrayed by the Pakistan political elite, in essence Pakistan was betrayed.

Afghanistan post 9/11 - In the last two decades of Afghan War, both dictator and political elite were to blame for Pakistan’s woes. The resilient Pakistani nation and its heroic soldiers stood fast stoically for this day. The time when Pakistan would influence the final outcome to its own ends in Afghanistan. 

US – Afghan Taliban Talks. US – Afghan Taliban Talks are very welcome. Pakistan has and should facilitate talks and negotiated settlement. Pakistan should maintain friendly balance with both USA and Afghan Taliban. A clear post US-NATO Exit vision is the basis of peace and stability in Afghanistan. Peace talks or final settlement will be greatly influenced by US politics.

US Politics - President Trump is basically a non-interventionist. For the $ 5 billion wall on the Mexican border, he shut down the US Government. For saving $50billion from the Afghan War annually, he will pull out sooner or later. In USA, despite being a hyper super power, ‘All politics is ultimately local!’ If after a two decade unwinnable war, $ 1 trillion US in the Afghan drain or swamp besides loss of life, limb for US military who can grudge his Kabul pullout? If you ask Americans about the Afghan War, many may be surprised that it is still ongoing. Of course Pentagon, CIA, State Department are already thinking ahead. They know Afghanistan was a previous war. Iran is the next one! Besides USA, Pakistan is the other most decisive player for end script.

Visitors to Pakistan - Foreign visitors, dignitaries to Pakistan by design differentiate between civil-military leadership. Of late political elite is being pampered, while the military faces a demonization campaign as usual. Pakistan’s answer is to present one policy, one voice on Afghanistan. Maintaining diplomatic protocol input of foreign visitors should be taken with a pinch of salt, if history is any teacher of geopolitics. Zalmay and other anti- Pakistan elements can bring no good. Aftermath of Geneva Accord and Bonn should be kept in mind.

No role for India, the spoiler - India the spoiler for Afghan peace has no role at all. Pakistan’s political elite should not confuse or lack in diction. In simplest terms Indian job in Afghanistan is to wind up its terror-consulates and terminate its hybrid war against Pakistan from Afghan soil!

Post US-NATO Umbrella in Afghanistan - After Soviet departure, Zbignew Brezinski, the architect geo-politician of Soviet defeat was asked about the terrorist menace born in aftermath of Soviet withdrawal. His reply was succinct. In essence for defeating a greater enemy (Soviets) a small enemy terrorists could be defeated later. In Post US-NATO umbrella in Afghanistan, the fact is that both State actor and non-State actor enemies will be defeated. Pakistan will triumph!

• Firstly, the Kabul regime puppets of India and hostile forces will be ousted. Whatever or ever replaces will be a lesser evil. If Pakistan pro-actively asserts which it should the future Kabul Regime should be friendly to Pakistan.
• Secondly, the Indian terror consulates and Delhi’s hybrid war against Pakistan from Afghan soil will be untenable. India is already reportedly reaching out to Iran, Russia and others for its war of survival in Kabul after the Americans leave.
• Thirdly, Pakistan can deal in multiple ways, even if the Americans leave Afghanistan without a deal. Afghanistan will be more dependent, Pakistan’s leverage will increase. Not only would US-NATO but China, Russia, Iran need Pakistani geopolitical succor. 
• Fourthly, under COAS General Bajwa, Pakistan has improved border security with Afghanistan. Border fence and management will reduce terrorists intrusion from Afghanistan, while terrorists safe heavens have already been eliminated on the Pakistan side. The overall favorable geo-strategy and resultant healthy foreign policy environment, credit goes to COAS General Bajwa and not anyone else.

It was Pakistan’s dictator and political elite which for personal aggrandizement wanted the war in Afghanistan to continue perpetually. Now the Americans need to exit, which is in the interest of all parties except Indians and their surrogates in Afghanistan.
Afghan Peace Deal

• A negotiated settlement is the best outcome.• The Afghan Taliban get a fair share in the political dispensation.• The US-NATO forces withdraw completely along with a ceasefire. • Kabul regime ensures its soil not used for any terrorist activity against US/EU and Pakistan.• US supports the Kabul regime financially. 

What does Pakistan get? Pakistan’s national interests must be guaranteed as part of the deal if and when one is finally concluded. 

Pakistan National Interests 
Geopolitical: The Kabul regime cannot be allied to India against Pakistan. Indian investments, intrusion, consulates must cease. The sanctity of the Pakistan-Afghan border must be respected. A friendly regime in Kabul is indispensable. 

Geo-economic: As stated in my book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, Afghanistan is a route to Central Asia linking Gwadar. Geo-economic bonanza of Gwadar, CPEC and corridor to Russia, Central Asia will bind Afghanistan- Pakistan geo-economically. Russia, Chinese investments in Afghanistan- Pakistan would be synergized. I had earlier written letter to President Putin, given interview to voice of Russia, met Russian Ambassador and diplomats to join Gwadar CPEC. A Central Asian Ambassador told me after the Americans leave Afghanistan they would connect through Afghanistan to Pakistan’s Gwadar.

Geo-strategic: Pakistan with a friendly Afghanistan in its rear can focus on re-absorbing Kashmir and rebalancing South Asia. In my book ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ (2013) it was highlighted that after US-NATO exit Pakistan shall proactively deal with India. The American’s sans Afghanistan will be more focused on their next conflict with Iran and would need Pakistan to stabilize Afghanistan. 

Geopolitical opportunities - Three geo political opportunities beacon themselves in 2019-2020 period. 

• • Afghanistan. Pakistan can and should be the principal winner of US-NATO exit from Kabul.
• • Kashmir. The heroic Kashmiris have waged a sacrifice laden struggle. Pakistan cooperation with USA should as quid pro quo enlist US support to resolve Kashmir dispute.
• • Khalistan. The Khalistan 2020 movement is spreading. Kartarpur initiative has smitten many Sikhs to Pakistan. Kartarpur should lead to Khalistan! An independent buffer state and neutral trading space bringing peace to Pakistan and India and delinking Kashmir from India.

Geopolitical winds are blowing in Pakistan’s Favor - USA, China, Russia all need Pakistan for various reasons. This rare geopolitical good fortune should not be frittered away. Nor sold at the altar of political expediency. The people of Pakistan have firmly supported the state. Now the state must ensure the real winner of Real Politik in Afghanistan is called Pakistan.
“Pakistan is destined to rise as a Great Nation”.

About the Author Brigadier Nadir Mir (R): Soldier – Scholar – Reformer, Chairman, PNRM.
Author of books ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’.

Photo

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

Bajwa Doctrine

The new buzzword for Pakistan is the Bajwa Doctrine! It has not been officially announced yet its contours are being discussed in mostly the Western world. As the name suggests it is inspired from the Pakistan Army Chief – Gen Bajwa. The personality and views of the COAS shape the Doctrine, besides valuable input from a variety of sources.

The COAS Gen. Bajwa is professional, astute and balanced. Besides being well read is well placed to craft a doctrine as per the zeitgeist. RUSI considered the dictator timid and Gen. Bajwa bold in withstanding American pressure from Afghanistan effectively. RUSI, Catham House, IISS are the British strategic view think tanks, globally acclaimed. But to view the Bajwa Doctrine as merely strategic defiance of USA is myopic. Firstly, USA is not considered hostile despite historical roller coaster like relations. Secondly, Pakistan has many other serious issues besides the trajectory of relations with Washington.

So what could Pakistan be seeking after two decades of turbulence. Firstly – internal stability. Destroying the network of Frankenstein terrorism along with big criminal / mafias. Putting the house in order within the present political / national system. Secondly – external security. Securing the Pak-Afghan Border with fences and management. Dignified return of nearly 3 million Afghan refugees (highlighted in Munich Security Conference with the apt motto to the brink and back?).

Responding pro actively to Indian attacks in Kashmir-LOC which is brutally targeting Pakistani civilians. Thirdly balanced military diplomacy with China, Russia, USA (West). Sending troops to Saudi Arabia while cordial ties with Iran and cementing with Turkey and supported from Sri Lanka to Japan.

Fourthly – completing Gwadar-CPEC. The geo-economic future of Pakistan (inspired from my first book – Gwadar on the Global Chessboard). Fifthly – the geopolitical contest with India is expanding (more of that in a subsequent article). A Nationalist and prudent doctrine is the need of the hour, while Pakistan’s political elite remains embroiled in endless petty political squabbles!

Conversely the Indian Army chief Sunderji’s doctrine lead to Operation Brasstacks’ failure. While Gen Rawat present Indian Army Chief’s doctrine about Two Front War with China and Pakistan will be a complete disaster if implemented by Delhi.

Pakistan while seeking geo-political and geo-economic autonomy from USA/West remains cooperative and a friend. The world needs Pakistan is a global truism! The Bajwa Doctrine is less visible but more effective, low on fanfare but highly result-oriented. It appears that it will become more apparent In future!

Author

Brigadier Nadir Mir (retd), is decorated with Sitar-e-Imtiaz (Military) for his outstanding abilities and devotion to the army. He had his high schooling from the Quetta Grammer School,St Anthony's and later the Aithchison and FC colleges Lahore. He is also a graduate of Command and Staff Colleges Pakistan and Turkey, besides the National Defence University. He is an authority on the military and economic strategy and has a vast experience of dealing with sensitive and important issues related to geo-politics. Presently he chairs PNRM

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More

US Failures in Afghanistan - what to do?

The biggest threat to US National Security is strategic miscalculation. In Afghanistan, the battle was an internally oriented conflict; but it had a confused and open ended definition to it. The US insisted in calling it COIN (counter Insurgency Operations) when it was not. The US method to madness unfolded from one dimension to another, ignoring geography, history, culture and ideology. In their enthusiasm the United States jumped from one plan to another in search of strategy as they lumbered on, never listened to anyone while they continued to do what they thought was the way forward. Ignorance and arrogance never go together. The result that with total air supremacy, against an enemy that had no tanks, artillery or air defence; the United States manged to put themselves into a losing situation. 

The only worthwhile ally, Pakistan, who could have helped the US win this conflict and bring stability to Afghanistan was cast aside and the alliance was broken through a successful man oeuvre of manipulation by an enemy that would have made Napoleon Bonaparte swell with pride. Breaking an alliance was Napoleon’s forte and was an obvious first step that an enemy would have taken in this case too. Who was this enemy, other than our very own? The US, leader of the world, commander of all Armies now cannot whine and blame others for their own failures, they must now behave the part and take responsibility of all that came to pass. It comes with the leadership role that the US loves to play. Well here are some very obvious things that need to be explained:

1. Political

• Removal of the Taliban government, which had a Pushtun leaning. The Pushtuns represent about 50 to 60 % of the Afghan population.
• Replacing them with a Northern Alliance biased government that represented less than 40% of the people.
• Introduced a universally unacceptable constitution, hoping that it would catch on. It did not.
• Tried a reconciliation process; top down approach.
• Tried integration; bottoms up approach.
• Wanted to negotiate with the Taliban but never considered speaking to the Pushtuns. The former believe in an ideological discourse, the latter a political one. Though most Taliban are Pushtun, but a strictly Pushtun dialogue would keep out the foreign spoilers.
• Assassinated any Taliban leader willing to talk through drone attacks.
• Insisted that Pakistan arrange the negotiation and when they did, destroyed their credibility by killing Taliban commanders in Pakistan who had been asked to come for the negotiation. 
• Setting up a ‘Unity Government’; it’s neither here or there and remains a confused, artificial structure that has no jurisdiction beyond the precincts of Kabul.
• Out of the three parties, the Taliban, the government and the US, the weakest is the government. That is why this government is probably the only known government to invite a foreign occupation, because it lacks in capacity, authority and legality.

2. Military

1. Based operations on garrisoning troops. Failed to secure lines of communication and relied on air rather ground.
2. Lost liberty of action and freedom of movement by not dominating spaces.
3. Continuity in such operations is necessary and not a choice. The US rotated troops every year and as such were never familiar with the terrain or the environment.
4. The limited understanding of the combat zone cannot be made up through ‘google maps’.
5. Operations of this kind are based on accurate intel. The US depended on Northern Alliance intel and interpreters. These people let their hatred for Pakistan take them away from any meaningful information. Salalah type operations were the product of misleading the US troops.
6. Raising an Army in a few years is unrealistic, it resulted in the highest rate of desertions and causalities. The NDS has still no capacity to stand ground regardless of the ‘feel good’ propaganda emanating from TOLO News. 
7. The two areas that needed US presence was ignored despite making promises, i.e. Nuristan/Kunar valley, where the US pulled out unilaterally and Paktia where the US always complained of cross border Haqqani battle groups moving into their area.
8. Not shutting down mobile networks along the Afghan Border despite requests to do so. SIMs are still functional while Pakistan had shut theirs down a while ago. Not blocking Thuriaya Communication which is based in Dubai and can easily be controlled.
9. Not supporting Pakistani Operation in North Waziristan with a US brigade during the surge to block the border though having promised to do so through four different commands. This caused the ‘revolving door’ effect. 
10. Suffering reverses by small tactical groups and blaming Pakistan instead of holding enquiries as to what went wrong. We have not heard a single case of tactical failure being attributed to incompetence or bad procedures. It’s as if no American can do wrong, though the US have lost this war and all because of the enemy!!! A really humorous conclusion.

3. Corruption

• Please read the SIGAR report. 
• A drug trade developed under the nose of ISAF that is now doing roaring business of anything up to $80 Billion annually. No one likes to quote these figures and everyone looks the other way as if it is inconsequential. Let it be clearly understood, the Taliban are being resourced by this drug money.
• Corruption in the government has caused the people to be highly critical of it.

4. Miscellaneous 

• The ISAF found it easier to justify their failures by blaming Pakistan. The lies were repeated and broadcasted so often that the US and their Coalition partners now believe it to be true.
• Losing about 50% of the space in Afghanistan where there is no government writ. The Taliban have signed $3Billion worth of contracts with the Chinese. Why would the Taliban need space in Pakistan when the resources and the area is available to them right there?
• Bringing in India, an enemy state into Afghanistan, and then expecting Pakistan to celebrate it.
• Resisting Pakistan’s attempt at border fencing when the charge against Pakistan was cross border movement.
• Insisting that Pakistan keep the millions of Afghan Refugees, whereas Pakistan has been continually complaining of the security problems because of it.
• Blaming Pakistan for the indigenous movement in Kashmir; singing India’s song!!
• Stating that the CPEC route was going through a disputed area, whereas, such a statement was highly uncalled for.
• Inserting ISIL into Afghanistan to challenge the Taliban. Bad idea. Russia has openly stated that they support the Taliban because of this and so do Iran. The US still remains conveniently quiet on the Russo Shura and the Iranian Shura.

5. Conclusions

• That Pakistan be coerced into fighting the war for the US and ‘do more’. It is clear that it is no longer about the War on Terror but more about containing China, disrupting CPEC and supporting India. Pakistan needs to be beaten into submission in phase 1.
• Pakistan cannot find it within itself to support the US. There is not a single reason, moral, political or military where Pakistan sees its national interest being served by cooperating with the US.
• It has now come full circle and Pakistan’s national interest can only be served by a comprehensive defeat of the US in Afghanistan if things do jot change for the better. There was a time when US success was in line with Pakistan's interest; not any more.
• That the US public are not aware of what all has happened or is happening and need to be informed of how the US have bungled here in Afghanistan.
• That a public joint enquiry is recommended where US and Pakistani military commanders be questioned and must be directed to explain their positions during their respective tenures. It is guaranteed to be very entertaining. 
• The people of the United States must restrain and contain their government in taking up a highly immoral position. If democracy has any substance to it, then a mechanism has to be put into place where the other side of the story is heard as well. Do the Americans have the courage to hear the truth?

6. Future

• If Pakistan stands its ground, the US and Pakistan can improve their relations though it will take a while that both would trust each other.
• The US can be part of CPEC rather than resist it. Becoming a strategic partner with China would make better sense now than becoming a competitor in a world/region where the US is a stranger in town.
• This could be of immense value to Afghanistan as well and they too could benefit from CPEC.
• Understandably India would not get what it is looking for, but then, should the US make a fool of itself in support of India?
• The US can only benefit fro  m the current crisis by being the leader it ought to be, having the moral courage to call a spade a spade, and the wisdom to promote stability rather than chaos.

About the Author: 

Lieutenant general Tariq Khan (Retired), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), winner of the Sword of Honour from Pakistan Military Academy, graduate of the prestigious National Defense University of Pakistan, has a long experience of fighting the War on Terror in the tribal areas of Pakistan and along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. He has extensive interaction with the allied commanders employed in Afghanistan and working with top US military elite at CENTCOM. He has been one of the few Pakistan Army officers awarded with the Legion of Merit by the USA. He also has the honour of commanding one of the strike corps of Pakistan Army. He is a well read military analyst who often shares his view points, incisive and thought provoking analysis on national and international affairs. His views on international / national affairs can be read on Facebook

(The views expressed above are personal of the author and do not necessarily express the opinion of the admin of this blog)

Photo

If you like the Fire Within, follow us on Facebook

Read More