Afghanistan and Geopolitics

By Brigadier Nadir Mir (R)

The single most crucial factor in Afghanistan peace efforts or end game is Pakistan’s national interest. Pakistan and Afghanistan are entwined in multi-faceted ways. Pakistan has suffered immensely since 9/11. US-NATO intervention has added two decades of mayhem and consternation to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US under President Trump, the supreme fiscal pragmatist has resolved to evict from Afghanistan. Of course the American strive for the best deal out of a lost war. The question is what does Pakistan aims for in a post-US Afghanistan?

Guarding Pakistan’s National Interests
Pakistan must project One Stated Afghan Policy. Ambiguity can be self-defeating for Pakistan. The civil-military, foreign office, think tanks, media must project one single, clear Afghan policy. The outcome of the post 9/11 Afghanistan war is evident like the day light to patriotic Pakistanis initiated in geopolitics. There is no room for vacillation or compliance on any score. 

Who won the Afghan war? 
The real winner of the Afghan conflict post 9/11 is simply Pakistan. Even though the Afghan Taliban or resistance to foreign forces did the war fighting. Russia, China, Iran even Central Asian States found US-NATO longevity of presence unwelcome. Earlier the Soviets were evicted by the Mujahideen mentored by Pakistan’s superlative ISI. This time Pakistan’s vaunted ISI would also facilitate the End Game of this chapter of the New Great Game

Pakistan is the real winner because it can secure its geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-strategic interests in post-US Afghanistan. However, before declaring victory or being drowned in the euphoria of happy geo-political tidings, a word of caution is mandated. The script for the next chapter of Afghanistan is being written, it should not be the handiwork of forces inimical to Pakistan’s interests. 

Reflection of national history also suggest that Pakistan has a legacy of betrayal by its political elite. Else the elite of the time was unworthy and missed these geopolitical opportunities. 

Lost Geopolitical Opportunities
1962 Kashmir. India was beaten by China. The Dictator of the time did not avail the opportunity of liberating Indian Held Kashmir. Persuaded by President John Kennedy and enamored by Jacqueline Kennedy the Pakistan Elite allowed the opportunity to slip out of Pakistan’s hands. By 1965 when Operation Gibraltar and later Grand Slam was launched, Pakistan found India better prepared. Even though Pakistan’s soldiers fought brilliant, bold tactical battles, the result was a strategic stalemate. Geopolitics turned against Pakistan and in 1971 Pakistan suffered terribly with the loss of East Pakistan, brought about by its existential enemy – India! 

Khalistan 1980-1990 - Khalistan was another golden opportunity to repay India for 1971. Also it would sever Kashmir and bring back Kashmir to Pakistan where it belonged. The creation of Khalistan would re-balance geo-strategic power between Pakistan and India. It would also set in motion domino effect since a dozen Indian freedom movements would be boosted. Khalistan was betrayed by the Pakistan political elite, in essence Pakistan was betrayed.

Afghanistan post 9/11 - In the last two decades of Afghan War, both dictator and political elite were to blame for Pakistan’s woes. The resilient Pakistani nation and its heroic soldiers stood fast stoically for this day. The time when Pakistan would influence the final outcome to its own ends in Afghanistan. 

US – Afghan Taliban Talks. US – Afghan Taliban Talks are very welcome. Pakistan has and should facilitate talks and negotiated settlement. Pakistan should maintain friendly balance with both USA and Afghan Taliban. A clear post US-NATO Exit vision is the basis of peace and stability in Afghanistan. Peace talks or final settlement will be greatly influenced by US politics.

US Politics - President Trump is basically a non-interventionist. For the $ 5 billion wall on the Mexican border, he shut down the US Government. For saving $50billion from the Afghan War annually, he will pull out sooner or later. In USA, despite being a hyper super power, ‘All politics is ultimately local!’ If after a two decade unwinnable war, $ 1 trillion US in the Afghan drain or swamp besides loss of life, limb for US military who can grudge his Kabul pullout? If you ask Americans about the Afghan War, many may be surprised that it is still ongoing. Of course Pentagon, CIA, State Department are already thinking ahead. They know Afghanistan was a previous war. Iran is the next one! Besides USA, Pakistan is the other most decisive player for end script.

Visitors to Pakistan - Foreign visitors, dignitaries to Pakistan by design differentiate between civil-military leadership. Of late political elite is being pampered, while the military faces a demonization campaign as usual. Pakistan’s answer is to present one policy, one voice on Afghanistan. Maintaining diplomatic protocol input of foreign visitors should be taken with a pinch of salt, if history is any teacher of geopolitics. Zalmay and other anti- Pakistan elements can bring no good. Aftermath of Geneva Accord and Bonn should be kept in mind.

No role for India, the spoiler - India the spoiler for Afghan peace has no role at all. Pakistan’s political elite should not confuse or lack in diction. In simplest terms Indian job in Afghanistan is to wind up its terror-consulates and terminate its hybrid war against Pakistan from Afghan soil!

Post US-NATO Umbrella in Afghanistan - After Soviet departure, Zbignew Brezinski, the architect geo-politician of Soviet defeat was asked about the terrorist menace born in aftermath of Soviet withdrawal. His reply was succinct. In essence for defeating a greater enemy (Soviets) a small enemy terrorists could be defeated later. In Post US-NATO umbrella in Afghanistan, the fact is that both State actor and non-State actor enemies will be defeated. Pakistan will triumph!

• Firstly, the Kabul regime puppets of India and hostile forces will be ousted. Whatever or ever replaces will be a lesser evil. If Pakistan pro-actively asserts which it should the future Kabul Regime should be friendly to Pakistan.
• Secondly, the Indian terror consulates and Delhi’s hybrid war against Pakistan from Afghan soil will be untenable. India is already reportedly reaching out to Iran, Russia and others for its war of survival in Kabul after the Americans leave.
• Thirdly, Pakistan can deal in multiple ways, even if the Americans leave Afghanistan without a deal. Afghanistan will be more dependent, Pakistan’s leverage will increase. Not only would US-NATO but China, Russia, Iran need Pakistani geopolitical succor. 
• Fourthly, under COAS General Bajwa, Pakistan has improved border security with Afghanistan. Border fence and management will reduce terrorists intrusion from Afghanistan, while terrorists safe heavens have already been eliminated on the Pakistan side. The overall favorable geo-strategy and resultant healthy foreign policy environment, credit goes to COAS General Bajwa and not anyone else.

It was Pakistan’s dictator and political elite which for personal aggrandizement wanted the war in Afghanistan to continue perpetually. Now the Americans need to exit, which is in the interest of all parties except Indians and their surrogates in Afghanistan.
Afghan Peace Deal

• A negotiated settlement is the best outcome.• The Afghan Taliban get a fair share in the political dispensation.• The US-NATO forces withdraw completely along with a ceasefire. • Kabul regime ensures its soil not used for any terrorist activity against US/EU and Pakistan.• US supports the Kabul regime financially. 

What does Pakistan get? Pakistan’s national interests must be guaranteed as part of the deal if and when one is finally concluded. 

Pakistan National Interests 
Geopolitical: The Kabul regime cannot be allied to India against Pakistan. Indian investments, intrusion, consulates must cease. The sanctity of the Pakistan-Afghan border must be respected. A friendly regime in Kabul is indispensable. 

Geo-economic: As stated in my book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’, Afghanistan is a route to Central Asia linking Gwadar. Geo-economic bonanza of Gwadar, CPEC and corridor to Russia, Central Asia will bind Afghanistan- Pakistan geo-economically. Russia, Chinese investments in Afghanistan- Pakistan would be synergized. I had earlier written letter to President Putin, given interview to voice of Russia, met Russian Ambassador and diplomats to join Gwadar CPEC. A Central Asian Ambassador told me after the Americans leave Afghanistan they would connect through Afghanistan to Pakistan’s Gwadar.

Geo-strategic: Pakistan with a friendly Afghanistan in its rear can focus on re-absorbing Kashmir and rebalancing South Asia. In my book ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ (2013) it was highlighted that after US-NATO exit Pakistan shall proactively deal with India. The American’s sans Afghanistan will be more focused on their next conflict with Iran and would need Pakistan to stabilize Afghanistan. 

Geopolitical opportunities - Three geo political opportunities beacon themselves in 2019-2020 period. 

• • Afghanistan. Pakistan can and should be the principal winner of US-NATO exit from Kabul.
• • Kashmir. The heroic Kashmiris have waged a sacrifice laden struggle. Pakistan cooperation with USA should as quid pro quo enlist US support to resolve Kashmir dispute.
• • Khalistan. The Khalistan 2020 movement is spreading. Kartarpur initiative has smitten many Sikhs to Pakistan. Kartarpur should lead to Khalistan! An independent buffer state and neutral trading space bringing peace to Pakistan and India and delinking Kashmir from India.

Geopolitical winds are blowing in Pakistan’s Favor - USA, China, Russia all need Pakistan for various reasons. This rare geopolitical good fortune should not be frittered away. Nor sold at the altar of political expediency. The people of Pakistan have firmly supported the state. Now the state must ensure the real winner of Real Politik in Afghanistan is called Pakistan.
“Pakistan is destined to rise as a Great Nation”.

About the Author Brigadier Nadir Mir (R): Soldier – Scholar – Reformer, Chairman, PNRM.
Author of books ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’.

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Next Gulf War – Iran

By Brigadier Nadir Mir

The Next Gulf War is about the Middle East Dominance. Qatar may be the Casus Belli of the Next War Iran or maybe not.

The Gulf has become the Centre of Gravity of Larger Middle East. Parts of the Middle East are Destroyed, parts in Turmoil and parts Opulent. Whoever controls the Gulf Region, controls Oil, Gas, influences Israel, Conservative Arab Monarchies or Revolutionary Iran. USA stands challenged; Russia is back and Non State Actors galore with ISIS – Daesh spreading. 

In 2011, I wrote an article published in Pravda Moscow. ‘Next War – Iran’. This was War between Israel and Iran which was averted! In my book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ published 2013, sub chapter was titled – ‘Iran on the March and Arab World Part Opulent Part Turmoil’. In 2015, I was invited from Pakistan to attend Manama Dialogue at Bahrain for Gulf Security, hosted by International Institute of Strategic Studies – one conclusion ‘Next Gulf War’ a matter of time. 

A complicated scenario because too many contenders with clashing and often unattainable aims. Many Gulf Commentators are biased and not pragmatic, only unbiased analysis can lead to positive outcome:

USA wants to retain Hegemony in the Gulf and Middle East which is slipping. American aim is to sell Massive Arms, (Military Industrial Complex), retain stable and free flow of Oil, Dollar Monopoly, Israel secure forever, and Arab Monarchies secure for now. Make America Rich Again by transferring part of the Gulf Wealth to USA. To secure Israel and Arab Monarchies, Check Russia, Iran is the Next War. Iran has recently rejected the US Dollar. This is crossing an American Red line as US Dollar Hegemony leads to Global Dominance. Kissinger can hear the Drums of War, since he set the Drum Beat – Petrodollars in the 1970s. Saddam tried Euros in place of Dollars. Gaddafi wanted Dinars to replace Dollars, their Fate is History.

Iran wants to be the Leader of the Gulf and the Middle East. It is a Rejectionist State which wants to destroy Israel and oust America from the Gulf and Middle East. Iran is in clash with Sunni Gulf Arab Monarchies. A Combined Clash of Historical Arab – Persian and Current Monarchies – Revolutionaries. Iran is united with fervor, Motivated to fight, Excels in Asymmetrical and Missile War. Backed by Russia to an extent and with Local Militant, Non State Actor Allies. It is a Proud and Cultured Nation, however, lacks the resources to dominate the region. If an all out war breaks out it could inflict Heavy Damage but will come to Grief against the combined resources of Saudi – GCC/Allies, Israel, US, EU. 
Saudi Arabia – GCC/Allies

Saudi Arabia considers itself the Natural Leader of the Gulf and Middle East. The Obama Presidency Cool Relations have been rekindled by warmth of Trump Administration. President Trump’s Team and Saudi Arabia/GCC less Qatar are determined to halt Iran in its tracks. Wrestle back Dominance of the Gulf and Middle East from Persian to Arab hands. It uses its endless Petrodollars and Bedouin Wisdom to achieve Geopolitical Ends. It cannot alone defeat Iran, or dominate the region, and needs Allies. Considers the Pakistan Military as the most Powerful Regional Force and seeks its Support.

China, EU and Japan all retain key economic interests in the Gulf and the Larger Middle East. They may not be Direct Military Participants except NATO in case of a Larger Iran Conflict.

Turkey: Aspiring Leader of Muslim World. A Rising Economy of a Beautiful County. Over all has a balancing role, closer to Pakistan. Its biggest fear is Kurdistan. It will position itself in a manner to influence all sides seeking peace in the region. 

Russia is back in the Gulf – Middle East Game and its making up for lost time since Soviet Union Days. Russia will support Iran to embroil USA in another Protracted and Bloody War. Draining America and forcing its withdrawal from Gulf – Middle East or seek concessions in Europe and elsewhere. Russia lacks the resources to dominate Gulf – Middle East itself, but it has positioned itself as a Geo strategic Player in the Region.

Israel considers Iran as the Existential Threat, aided by Allies Hezbullah and others. It is determined to destroy Iranian Nuclear Infrastructure and deny Iran the Bomb at all cost. It has been preparing for Iran War with Air, Missile and Submarines Attacks. (Read detailed article, ‘Next War Iran’ published in Pravda Moscow by Brigadier Nadir Mir – 2011 on Google). Obama Presidency never gave Green Light for Israel’s Strike. Now Israel feels emboldened by President Trump’s Policy and seeks cooperative relations with Arab States to Defang Iran. 

Daesh and Non State Actors: Major State Actors are supportive of their own suited Non State Actors in the Gulf – Middle East. However, though squeezed on many fronts, Daesh is spreading out for Gulf, Larger Middle East and other parts of the world. War and destruction is the catalyst for more militancy and terrorism.

Pakistan should make efforts for Gulf Peace and Avoid War. Mediation along with Turkey maybe helpful. Pakistan must Defend Saudi Arabia, (more so, the Holy Sites) but not fight Iran. A Delicate Diplomatic Tightrope. Pakistan should supply humanitarian aid through Pakistan border to Iran. Retain leverage on both sides and coordinate with China, Russia and USA for Peace. Pakistan cannot remain so called Neutral or Aloof in a Major War on its Western door step which can threaten CPEC – Gwadar. (With 4 million Pakistanis sending remittance from the Gulf and oil flow essential for Pakistan’s Economy). 

In my article, ‘Pakistan New Gulf Player at Gwadar’, it had been highlighted that Pakistan’s role is Crucial for Gulf Peace. Pakistan has critical Geo-economic and Geo-strategic interests in the Gulf. Visits and role of Pakistan's Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is Essential and Commendable for securing Pakistan’s Interests. Pakistan must also monitor Indian Developments in the Gulf as Indians are already positioning themselves in Afghanistan. Pakistan should also be prepared against possible Indian Misadventures during a Major Gulf War – Crisis.

About the author:
Brigadier Nadir Mir (R), Soldier – Scholar – Reformer 
Author of the books “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
He is the Chairman of Pakistan National Reform Movement (PNRM).
PNR Movement is Nationalist (Pro Pakistan) and Reformist (Pro People).
Unite Pakistan, Defend Pakistan, Reform Pakistan 
(PNRM)

Photo: Pixabay

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A topsy-turvy world

The planet is moving towards a non-polar world, rather than a multi-polar one. After World War Two (1945), the world was split into two camps or ‘bipolar era’ (the Cardinals of the Kremlin and Grand Masters of the White House). The demise of Soviet Union in 1991 left USA as the undisputed global master. America’s ‘overstretch’ abroad, contested by numerous quarters and capitalism going wild, exhausted it within two decades. 

China emerged as an economic peer, Putin’s Russia as a strategic rival and elusive Islamic militants embroiled Americans in Islamic lands, even as the Arab Spring created a new equation. Meanwhile, EU faced economic crisis, while global wealth partly shifted into the ‘Petro Gulf’, Asian Tigers and Central Asian cities. The new entrants into the global economic arena included Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and even Mexico. 

America had waged protracted, unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. With a war weary public at home, the culmination point of US unilateralism had been reached. Even Robert Gates, the previous Secretary Defence, had warned that ‘USA should no longer get involved in land wars in Asia’.

In 2013, when USA was prevented from attacking Syria, it sought diplomacy with Iran (to the annoyance of Israelis and Saudis), and found Karzai reluctant to sign BSA. Kabul did sign agreements with India and Iran and would probably later with USA. But the world had changed for Washington. Even as the US made Asia Pacific its pivot with Air Sea Battle plans against China (akin to Air Land Battle against Soviet Union), its Middle East influence was slipping. Discovery of shale gas at home, besides difficulties abroad also reduced US’ appetite and penchant for Middle East energy reserves. The cumulative effect of all this and much more is that America remains pre-eminent but not predominant. In essence, US may lead but not control the world.

So, now that brings us to the non-polar world. ‘There is no need for conflict between America and China now that global dominance is no longer achievable’. Zbigniew Brzezinski Giants, but Not Hegemons (NY Times Feb 13, 2013)

The emerging non-polar world or zero-polar world has already cast a shadow on Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia confluence. Regional Geopolitics may be taking a new turn.

And now, we move onto regional geopolitics. Now the clock is ticking in Afghanistan. By next year, most US combat forces are expected to leave for home. Afghan war is already a forgotten story in US. Except for small vested lobbies, mainstream America wants an end to this war. Some Afghans living on US dole want US troops to ferry them along to the home of the brave. Some quarters in Pakistan are in a state of denial as to how and why should US leave Afghanistan (perhaps they never heard of US withdrawal from Vietnam). Delhi is petrified by the very idea of US leaving Afghanistan. US – Iran détente is possible, yet the geopolitics of the regions is extremely complicated. Normal relations between the two foes will take some time and are also hostage to future American Administration and their world view. 

The emerging non-polar world and regional geopolitics are positive trends for Pakistan. A unified Pakistan putting its house in order is a prerequisite. By combining its virtues, both as a ‘Bridge’ state and ‘Interposing’ state of multi-regions, Pakistan would guard its national interests. With peace at home and pursuing a nationalistic policy, Pakistan can achieve its rightful place on the map.

by Brigadier Nadir Mir®  - a geo-politician and defence analyst.

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Pakistan’s Weltanschauung (World View) By Nadir Mir [Book Review]

The book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is a major contribution on the Pakistani intellectual scene. This seminal endeavour on Geopolitiks from Pakistani perceptive is even more astounding. The book aims to introduce a critical subject with new thinking for the benefit of Pakistani nation and the world at large.  Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is indeed a pioneering Geopolitikal work of the author Brigadier Nadir Mir (R). His first book was ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ which was on Geo economics and greatly contributed to rekindle the Gwadar Project.

Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is the abiding theme rather than foreign imported concepts and ideas. Geopolitik, in this book is a combination of National Security Policy and Foreign Policy. It commences with an appraisal of Global Geopolitikal environment which is heading towards a Non Polar World rather than an imminent Multi Polar World. In essence, even as the western world’s dominance recedes no new hegemon would be globally dominant. The critical importance of Geopolitiks for Pakistan and the subject’s evolution are discussed thread bare initially.

The Geopolitiks relating to Afghanistan, Pakistan – India’s Geopolitikal rivalry and likely India – China Cold War are dealt at length and convincingly. Future Geopolitik 2013 – 2020 is an apt description of critical players in the global world. This is a fascinating Geopolitikal world tour.

Aspects of Geo-Oceanic Politik and Geo-Demographic Politik, relationship of Politiks and Geopolitiks, Great Games and BRICS future are extremely well presented. 

The book contains 13 chapters, 283 pages and it is summed up in its Crux Chapter, to craft Geo-strategy and Geo-economics for Pakistan. The maps, sketches and illustrations make the book graphically comprehensive and illuminate the bigger world picture.  Despite the Pakistani origin of this work, over all the global vision is perfectly apparent. ‘Geopolitks of Peace’ is the solution to the world’s problem. US – China amity is in global interest and Pakistan in fact proved a Geopolitikal bridge for initial US – China contacts. Russia has a great role to play for global peace and balance. Even as new powers Turkey, Brazil, South Africa are rising and contributing to the world’s prosperity. 

The same way, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and others have historical, cultural and multi links with Pakistan. This work portrays Pakistan’s potential both as a bridge state and an interposing state. ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is an effort to highlight Pakistan as a unified, powerful and prosperous rising power, its current troubles notwithstanding. Pakistan needs change and the change should be democratic, reform revolution based. 

The book is very well researched. A rare combination of history, geography, economics, strategy, ideology, emotions and a lot more to make it real Geopolitiks. It covers the historic past, deals with present day issues and projects the future pragmatically. This propagates Pakistan’s new National Security Narrative and Foreign Policy which projects Pakistan’s National Cause. While suggesting peace with India, Indian hegemony is to be resisted and Kashmir remains central to Pakistan’s Cause. 

All told, the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ is a surprise gift from this beleaguered nation. Any reader would be influenced by the historic truths, geographical realities, pragmatic deductions and logical yet suggestive narration. Certainly, a book of sound ideas and great authority for every chapter being virtually conclusive. 

The author, as a pioneering Geopolitician has contributed immensely to the National Cause of Pakistan and for global peace. He is initiating Pakistan National Reform.

The author Brigadier Nadir Mir has written articles on Geopolitics, they have been published in Pravda ru (Moscow), China Daily (Beijing), EU Times, The Nation Pakistan and many think tanks.

Originally Posted by Editor on Nov 11, 2013 in Book Reviews

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A new Book Launched: ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Brig Nadir Mir

Launching of ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Brig Nadir Mir at Punjab University, Friday 6 July 2013

Brigadier Nadir Mir ® is an emerging writer on the geopolitics in Pakistan and has been contributing in many national and international forums about the subject. He has also contributed his articles on Geopolitics, which have been published in Pravda ru (Moscow), China Daily (Beijing), EU Times, The Nation Pakistan beside The Fire Within.

In short, Brigadier Nadir Mir ® is a pioneering Geo-politician who has contributed immensely to the National Cause of Pakistan.

His first book 'Gwader on the Global Chessboard' was published in 2011, which gave a bird's eye of the importance of Gwader and its overall impact on the geopolitics of the global chessboard. The book was well received by the students of military history and geopolitics who are deeply concerned with the happenings in the troubled Balochistan province in recent times.

Brigadier Nadir Mir ® has now launched his second book ‘Geopolitik Pakistan.’ The launching ceremony was held in the Punjab University on Friday, 5th July 2013 and was well attended by men of letter and think tanks.

His new book introduces the subject of Geopolitks from Pakistani point of view. Pakistan’s Weltanschauung or world view is the abiding theme rather than foreign imported concepts and ideas. In fact Geopolitik, in this book is a combination of National Security Policy and Foreign Policy.

Speaking at a ceremony to launch the book, Geopolitik Pakistan, by Brig (r) Nadir Mir here at the Al Raazi Hall, Punjab University Vice Chancellor Mujahid Kamran said on Friday "Pakistan can make great progress if its geographical location is taken advantage of."

Present on the occasion, former foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan said the Pakistan Army was doing its job. He said the politicians too should do their part as the country “could not progress unless we improve our governance.”

He said Pakistan’s internal challenges were far more serious than the external ones. “Our institutions have collapsed…we should not blame the US and India for it,” he said.

He said, “We do not measure up to the expectations of Quaid-i-Azam and Allama Iqbal…our rulers prefer personal interest to national interest.” He said no country was so important in terms of its geographical position as Pakistan was but “we have turned this asset into a liability.”

Some of the salient of the book are:

• It commences with an appraisal of Global Geopolitikal environment which is heading towards a Non Polar World rather than an imminent Multi-Polar World. The critical importance of Geopolitiks for Pakistan and the subject’s evolution are discussed thread bare initially.
• The Geopolitiks relating to Afghanistan, Pakistan – India’s Geopolitikal rivalry and likely India – China Cold War are dealt at length and convincingly.
• Future Geopolitik 2013 – 2020 is an apt description of critical players in the global world. This is a fascinating Geopolitikal world tour.
• Aspects of Geo-Oceanic Politik and Geo-Demographic Politik, relationship of Politiks and Geopolitiks, Great Games and BRICS future are extremely well presented.
• ‘Geopolitks of Peace’ is the solution to the world’s problem. US – China amity is in global interest.
• And lastly, the book is summed up in its Crux Chapter, to craft Geo-strategy and Geo-economics for Pakistan.

The book is very well researched, historical, geographical but also futuristic. Propagates Pakistan’s new National Security Narrative and Foreign Policy which projects Pakistan’s National Cause. While suggesting peace with India, Indian hegemony is to be resisted and Kashmir remains central to Pakistan’s Cause.

The book will soon be launched in Islamabad.

About the Author:

Brigadier Nadir Mir ® is decorated with Sitar-e-Imtiaz (Military) for his outstanding abilities and devotion to the army. He had his high schooling from the Quetta Crammer School,St Anthony's and later the Aithchison and FC colleges Lahore. He is also a graduate of Command and Staff Colleges Pakistan and Turkey, besides the National Defence University. He is an authority on the military and economic strategy and has a vast experience of dealing with sensitive and important issues related to geo-politics. The book is being seen by many as an important document for the students of international relations and as substantial reference book.  The author after farewell to arms has dedicated his life for research and analysis and to further the cause of making Pakistan as one of the leading countries of the region. Presently he writing an elaborate book on the geo-politics of the region with special reference and emphasis on Pakistan.

Ref: The Express Tribune

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Chaos and Middle East Wars!

The Middle East is ablaze even without a declared war! The cradle of historical civilizations and major religions are embroiled in small conflicts, spiraling chaos but with the potential to explode into a Greater War! Mini Armageddon has not been announced even though all indicators point towards it. The horoscope of the times portrays numerous small wars in the Middle East. Even one like Syria can mushroom into a greater war of major powers.

The Middle East is interconnected geopolitically. The reasons are its geographic unity, Islamic identity (except Israel), shared historical legacy, local turf wars, animosity for Israel and borders dating back to Lawrence of Arabia’s handiwork. Not to mention, its oil wealth and America’s insatiable love for it. More so, the Middle East is linking to North Africa and by geographic extension the rest of Africa.

The extended or Greater Middle East includes Turkey on one flank and Pakistan on the other. In the centre is the region which is boiling today. Geopolitically the entire Greater Middle East is dynamic, at places explosive. Local conflicts both historical plus recent and besides Shia – Sunni divide (exploited by hostile powers), Arab – Israel – Iran triangular contest have merged. On top of that great power geopolitics has seeped in and now threatens to become a global contest!

It would be pertinent to examine the local conflicts, before factoring in the ‘Great Powers Play’.

Syria
Syria is at present the epicentre of the conflict region. The Syrian uprising or Spring failed to dislodge the Damascus Regime. Neither the Egyptian (Tahrir Square) nor Libya (NATO Supported) model, worked so far.

Basher Al Asad proved a harder nut to crack than was expected by his foes both at home and abroad. An impasse of sorts or strategic stalemate exists till date. Regime change in Syria albeit by local resistance, supported externally was considered a prelude to attack on Iran by Israel – USA. Now the battle lines are drawn sharply. Damascus or the Syrian Regime is overtly supported by Iran, Russia, Hezbollah fighters and Shias in the region. It is opposed by Syrian Rebels, Turkey, Sunni Arab States, NATO, US and Israel. US has decided to arm the Syrian Rebels overtly (some of whom are termed as Al Qaeda supporters).

The war in Syria could spread, while American intervention will worsen it and thousands of new fighters being trained in the crucible of Syria will destabilize the entire Middle East for decades.

The improbable question is being asked – ‘Could Syria ignite World War III?’

Turkey
Turkey is clearly a rising power, with its $1 trillion economy and powerful military. The Gazi Park controversy now over, Turkey’s internal dynamics will settle down. A mature democracy is emerging. Efforts to create turmoil by foreign elements in Turkey will fail. Will Turkey temper its Syrian Policy? The brave Turks seek a powerful and prosperous Turkey and peaceful neighbourhood.

Egypt
Revolutionary Egypt will need time to settle down. Still conflict in Syria or with Israel will embroil it sooner than later. This will complicate the already complex environment. It could also convert the Syrian Civil War into an Arab – Israel context.

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia and Gulf States even while supportive of Sunni Rebels need stability themselves. Instability or civil wars, revolutions are unaffordable commodities for oil rich Sheikhs (who can afford everything else). A protracted asymmetrical war in Syria churning out radical fighters will spread chaos in the Arabian Peninsula.

If the Syria conflict was to spill over to Jordan, Iraq and Arabian Peninsula, a new consternation would be created. The wise Saudis are cognizant of the pitfalls and seek an early end to the Syrian turmoil.

Iran
The new regime in Iran is considered ‘Moderate’. This is good for Iran and the world. Yet Iran is not likely to compromise on its nuclear plans, the real reason for its conflict with Israel and USA. While USA – Iran talks may be more likely, Israel will try to devise new means to hamper them. Israel is determined to stop Nuclear Iran even as the Iranians are equally determined to defend themselves.

Pakistan
Pakistan is linked to multi regions. Its Baluchistan province is the gate way to West Asia or Greater Middle East. The province is being targeted by foreign powers. Baluchistan’s internal dynamics apart, it is being destabilized by foreign forces. China joining Pakistan’s Gwadar Port has been opposed by India. The recent terrorist attacks in Quetta and burning of Quaid –e- Azam residence at Ziarat, were foreign sponsored. The new democratically elected Pakistani regime may be surprised and shocked to find how hostile forces are trying to destabilize it. However the Pakistani Nation and its Armed Forces are united to defend Pakistan against a handful of foreign aided militants in Baluchistan.

Great Power Conflict
Behind the Middle East are opposing alliances, US – NATO on one side and Russia – China on the other. US – NATO is the dominant alliance, proactive and ready to fight offensive or humanitarian wars. Russia – China is the challenging or emerging alliance. The struggle or competition is actually global, but focused for now on the Middle East. US – NATO seek longevity for their dominance, while blocking China’s economic rise and Russia’s strategic return.

China
China’s economy is rising fast and will rival USA within the decade. USA shifts to Asia Pacific and China’s Neo containment. China, while planning its defence in Pacific and supportive of North Korea looks west. China seeks Middle East oil, maintains influence and ingress in Africa. Even South America and EU are within reach of Chinese economic ventures. The Chinese are winning the geo-economic war! Yet it needs oil from Middle East and minerals from Africa, shipped and piped through the Pakistani Port of Gwadar to Xinjiang.

Disrupting the China, Middle East / Africa energy – market sources is for US Neo Con lobbies a priority. Gwadar has become a phobia for India due to presence of China on Indian Ocean, even if it be for geo-economics reasons.

Russia
Russia under Putin’s leadership is balancing world affairs. It allies with Iran, supports Syria, and has strategic consensus with China. Moscow considers US – NATO intrusions in other nations not merely disdainful but is ready to support its allies. Russia, Iran, China are linked in Syria and blocking US – NATO from launching the next war.

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The Israeli – US war against Iran was expected to enlarge onto a greater war. Yet the war against Iran seems relegated for the present. War against Syria or rather the battle for Syria, is the first step or prelude to this greater war!

The reason is not that the feeble regime in Damascus can have a great war fighting strategy against US – NATO invasion, or even limited (Libya Style) intrusions. The Syrian Regime can strike Israel with missiles, prompting Israeli retribution on Damascus.

A US – NATO no fly zone demands destroying Syrian Air Defence / Air Force while Syria may be supported by Iran – Russia. In case, Russia gifts S300 Air Defence missiles, the Syrian defence will become robust. This can prolong the struggle. US – NATO forces invading Syria will certainly be fighting with Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and Arab fighters, all opposed to ‘The New Crusaders’. The entire region will be militarized, borders will be violated, economic trouble abounds and war prolongs. Regardless of the outcome, USA will be blamed!

Alliances may shift as the war progresses and spill over into Israel. Conversely, with Syria neutralized with American – NATO power, Israel may strike Iran. Neo Con – Globalists supporting or sponsoring war against Syria, also want Iran denuclearized, Baluchistan separated from Pakistan, still others want Kurdistan established and Saudi Arabia inflamed. Hezbollah and Iran will fight for their survival in and around Syria. The war zone will transgress many borders. Russian weapons and Chinese money may support the anti hegemony forces.

War in Syria is taking shape of an asymmetrical World War III. The Syrian Army’s victory at Al – Qusayr is being termed as a turning point. Of course this is no climactic like Stalingrad. Still Damascus buoyed by Hezbollah – Iranian support is far from falling. Franklin Lamb in his article, ‘Why Obama is declaring war on Syria’ aptly and succinctly presented the larger picture. The Iranian strategic endeavours in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon have unnerved Americans, more so, anti Iranian Neo Cons. Still the Pentagon with a wise General Dempsey is sceptic about the Syrian Campaign. Smart Americans are already terming the Syrian War tomorrow, as worse than Iraq’s war yesterday.

With diplomacy not leading the charge and even John Kerry is worried about statecraft being too little, too late. The Pentagon seeks a quick end to the Syrian Affair. The disaster of Iraq – Afghanistan protracted wars, Al Qaeda linked Syrian Rebels, armed with new missiles, appears dangerous. US – NATO armoured forces supported by special operations and air naval power may seek fast tempo demise to the Damascus Regime.

In the event of American invasion or NATO supported rebel victory, the Damascus Regime will change. A lot else will also change in the Middle East. Multiple wars will erupt. Firstly after US – NATO victory or occupation of Syria, an anti American resistance will commence not limited to Syria. This may be greatly supported by Iran – Russia and China.

Secondly, another war may erupt in Lebanon attacked by Israel or Iran attacked by Israel. In essence, a war involving Israel. Egypt may be lured in while Turkey may re-examine its options in the conflict.

Thirdly, the borders of Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon may become fluid. Saudi Arabia and Gulf States could face a new wave of an Arab Spring or Sunni – Shia conflict promoted by foreign forces. Even if open wars are not fought, asymmetrical conflicts may overlap borders. Noam Chomsky may prove right that ‘Sykes – Picot is failing’. The post World War I or post Ottoman Empire borders may be affected.

Is it Ralph Peter’s new map of Middle East or ‘Controlled Chaos’ which is being worked on? Uncontrolled chaos will not leave anyone unscatched. Middle East on fire will devour local powers and foreign intruders. It was here that Saladin beat the Knight’s Templers and Crusaders at battle of Hatin, and later Sultan Baibours defeated the Mongol Hordes.

US – NATO invasion in Syria is already being termed as Armageddon of biblical prophecies and the coming of Dajjal. A war of the worlds may begin. Redrawing of maps, multiple wars in Middle East and humanitarian crisis will exhaust America, weaken EU, and embroil Russia – China. A new form of cold – hot war will commence. Kurdistan will lead to endless strife in numerous states. Israel will be endangered in a burning Middle East, whose flames it would not escape. If the war spread further, involving Pakistan – India, nuclear war destroying large parts of humanity and the world may occur.

President Putin boldly voiced the defence of Syria in G8 Summit, leaving no doubts. American geo-strategy has already over reached; Syria can only make it worse!

There is still time to relent from apocalypse in the Middle East, which can be controlled or contained. ‘Geopolitics of Peace’ is the solution and not chaos or a great war in the Middle East. The regime in Damascus is not the ultimate question?

Peace and prosperity in the Middle East and the world is at stake!

by Brigadier Nadir Mir from Pakistan, EU Times correspondent - Posted by EU Times on Jun 21st, 2013 

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The Existential Threat

Brigadier Nadir Mir ®

The COAS, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said: “The armed forces remain fully prepared to defeat any external direct threat.” This was, indeed, an apt, timely and direly needed statement. Undoubtedly, its primary task is to defend Pakistan from external threats. This threat from 1947 till date has been from the east – i.e. India. Despite this, since 9/11, both by default and design, confusion was added to the threat perception. After the US-Nato invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan was embroiled on its western borders. More so, due to a tragic, yet ferocious terrorist campaign within Pakistan, the threat perception was engulfed by fog.

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Anyway, the existential threat to Pakistan is from external foes, who likewise comprise an indirect internal threat. India also supports asymmetrical war or covert operations against Pakistan; more so, on its western border and Balochistan.

The Pakistan Army has bravely dealt with great challenges and defeated the strongest antagonists. In the 1980s, Pakistan was hemmed in between the Soviet occupied Afghanistan and hostile India. The Soviet retreat from Afghanistan and the Indian failure in Operation Brasstacks was due to its valiant military and the ISI. Since 2001, if the Nato forces did not cross Pakistan’s western border, and India its eastern border, it was all because of the army’s vigilance, supported by brave tribesmen in its West and freedom-loving Pakistanis in its east. Nuclear deterrence and an alert ISI, however, were part and parcel of the national defence effort.

September 2001 to 2012 has been a very challenging period for Pakistan. On its eastern border, the Indian military threat was gradually increasing; whereas, on its western side, the US-Nato forces were bogged down in a protracted, unwinnable war in Afghanistan. Besides an internal terrorist campaign, led by local extremists and sponsored by foreign hostile forces, was growing worse. Fortunately, the worst part is over for Pakistan and it is regaining its strategic balance. Indeed, the Pakistan Army’s resilience and the ISI’s fortitude is paying off. In addition, the geopolitical winds are in Pakistan’s favour.

Afghanistan: The US and Nato plans to withdraw a bulk of their troops. Keeping in view our national interests, Pakistan must support their exit strategy; indeed, it will help reduce the conflict in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s army must avoid being entangled with the Afghan militants, as its enemies would desire. Pakistan must have friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban. It is important to realize that the Americans are leaving, but the Taliban are staying.

USA: It will need Pakistan for peace-making in Afghanistan. Besides, the US is likely to be busy with numerous other global concerns, including North Korea.

Iran: With Iran, the geo-economic confluence should proceed. The gas pipeline linking Iran and Pakistan would benefit both nations.

China: The emerging global giant and Pakistan’s strategic ally should be further embraced. With China developing and managing the Gwadar port, Pakistan’s economy will boom.

Turkey: With Turkey, the relations can only grow stronger that is in the mutual interest of both nations. Turkey is a rising power and Pakistan’s future strategic ally.

Saudi Arabia: The Pak-Saudi relationship is not only historical, but also futuristic; not only religious, but also geopolitical.

Russia: It is Pakistan’s new friend. In the world of tomorrow, the past will be buried and the Moscow-Islamabad relationship will take a tangible shape.

Keeping this in view, Pakistan’s geopolitical future seems bright. But the three major problems for it will be economy, militancy and India. The economy will improve and militancy will reduce, but after the Afghan war ends. Yet, it is necessary that the Pakistani military pursues reconciliation with both the Taliban and Baloch militants. Ultimately, except for a minority of hardliners, the bulk should be brought back to the national mainstream.

Against this backdrop, the external direct threat to Pakistan is from India. The Hindu-Muslim animosity of 1,000 years did not end with the creation of Pakistan; in fact, it worsened. This was primarily because of the Indian stance of ‘Akhand Bharat’ or ‘Mother India’, and the incorrect notion that the subcontinent or South Asia was indivisible, which was negated by the Two Nation Theory. This is why the Indian atrocities in Kashmir and wars against Pakistan have now reached a new level, creating difficulty for New Delhi to seek peace with Islamabad. On the contrary, as the world’s biggest arms importer, India is preparing for ‘Cold Start’ or a surprise offensive war against Pakistan. The recent Indian tirades against Pakistan were reflections of the same.

Pakistan, however, should opt for ‘Cold Peace’; it means peace, but no friendship. While stressing India to resolve the Kashmir issue, its efforts to destabilize Balochistan and Gwadar should be thwarted. Pakistan should forge unity at home and redeploy its army in the east, once the USA exits from Afghanistan in 2014. The world must know that our army can do more than defend Pakistan.

'The Existential Threat' was published in The Nation on 4 May 2013

The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard.

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Pakistan: revolution and war

Nadir Mir

Pakistan may face revolution at home and war on the border. The environment in Pakistan is charged, to say the least. This is a combination of internal dynamics and geopolitics, reaching critical mass.

For over a decade, the Pakistani nation has been squeezed on many fronts. Ever since the war on terror began, Pakistan’s western border has become a war zone; its economy has been ruined, inflation gallops and militancy prevails. On top of that Indian threats mount, even as America plans to withdraw from Afghanistan.

Against this backdrop, three major dynamics are combining. These include US draw-down from Afghanistan, Pakistani people’s demand for change and India’s overt hostility toward Pakistan.

Pakistan Revolution: In Pakistan, the people have been deprived of the basics of life. Law and order problems persist in the country. Many people, who joined the long march, merely wanted electricity, gas, affordable fuel, jobs, etc. Undoubtedly, they have been robbed and deprived of their basic rights for ages. Still the brave, frugal and patriotic people maintain great love for their country and faith in Allah for a bright future of their children.

Pakistan’s main problem is the corrupt and decadent elite that is self-serving and foreign influenced. They have robbed the wealth of this country and transferred it abroad. For this, they were either facilitated or blackmailed by the foreign powers. In power circles, thus, the elite continued to do their bidding for geopolitical ends. Resultantly, poor and middle income people are getting poorer, while the country is getting destabilized.

Certainly, the elite outlook is parochial and not nationalistic. They have entrenched themselves in lands, business, bureaucracy and other levers of power. They monopolize wealth and there is little trickle down effect. This has not only deprived the masses, but also marginalized and confused them. Every effort has been made to divide Pakistanis by our internal and external enemies.

But now they are awaking from their deep slumber. They are uniting for a new Pakistan; they are seeking their basic rights. The next wave of revolutionary fervour would obviously be much more radical. Of course, democracy is still the way out, and the elections must lead to a reformed Pakistan. In future, two hundred million Pakistanis must be shareholders and stakeholders.

War against Pakistan: Even as the Americans depart from Afghanistan, India has started beating the war drum. Pakistan had hoped for peace once the Americans had left Afghanistan, but the eastern border became hot. After the recent clashes in Kashmir, the Indian army and air chiefs threatened Pakistan. Even the Indian Prime Minister has changed his tone towards Pakistan.

The Pakistan Army, while bravely defending the country, has acted with restraint and prudence. Surprisingly, despite Islamabad’s sincere efforts for peace, New Delhi is moving away from it. In spite of the fact that recently no terror strike took place in India for which Pakistan could be blamed, India intends to increase military presence along the border.

There are three basic reasons why India could follow a policy of confrontation with Pakistan. First, the USA’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan is making it nervous. Second, India wants to exploit any turmoil in Pakistan before it regains balance. Thirdly, New Delhi itself was unnerved by the rape protests and the gloss being removed from ‘Shining India’.

Furthermore, Kashmir or other problems add to its internal woes. And then there is little point of being the world’s number one arms importer and having a big army, if the neighbours are not to be bullied.

Reform Pakistan: The time to reform Pakistan has arrived. In Pakistan, the elite-based society must give way to a welfare society. The new political future of Pakistan should be of a united, wealth-sharing, peace-oriented culture with nationalistic aspirations. In Turkey, for example, much has been achieved through free and fair elections, while Egypt represents the much-hyped Tahrir Square model. However, an elected government can reform the country; if not, then a revolution may be likely!

Cold Peace with India: Nuclear armed Pakistan and India must avoid war. By resolving the Kashmir dispute, permanent peace can be achieved. The Pakistani government should neither confront India, nor appease it. A middle course will be ‘cold peace’, which means “peace but not friendship.” Friendly relations, however, can be maintained between the two countries once the core issues are resolved.

Pakistan’s army is well prepared, but India can miscalculate. Spending billions of dollars for buying more arms or Rafael fighter aircraft after the Kashmir clash is suggestive of New Delhi’s militarist intent.

In addition to enhanced nuclear deterrence, Pakistani army needs to build up conventional deterrence, even while avoiding an arms race. This implies peace on the western border and internal front to refocus in the east. While pursuing peace with India, Pakistan must be fully prepared to deter war.

Having said that, the Kashmir border escalation has been controlled this time. But will the war be avoided next time?

About the Author: The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwader on the Global Chessboard. He can be reached at e-mail: nadirmir13@gmail.com

Blog: Pakistan Geopolitics

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Change we need!

by Nadir Mir

To begin with, Pakistan needs reforms. Historically all nations demand reforms. Ironically reforms have been planned and implemented by both evolutionary and revolutionary political systems in the world. The British evolutionary system (except for Oliver Cromwell) since Magna Carter till date has reformed itself continuously and constantly.

The French Revolution 1789, followed by the ‘Code Napoleon’ implemented reforms and the laws of France. Even earlier the American revolution of 1775 was actually a war of independence from the British Crown. What made this a real revolution were the numerous reforms which followed in the newly formed USA. Today, China and Turkey plus other successful economic models have reformed themselves. Both are brotherly states for Pakistan and sources of inspiration.

It is to be considered that Pakistan’s situation and environment is unique. Firstly, Pakistan’s geography is superb. It is pivotally located. The confluence of West Asia, Central Asia, China, South Asia and Indian Ocean is a unique factor. It has the potential of being a ‘bridge state’ or interposing state between these multi-regions. The geo-economic potential through Gwadar lies untapped as yet. Its mineral riches abound (Reko Diq riches alone are estimated at $1 trillion). Its variety of terrain and weather gives it numerous opportunities.

Secondly, Pakistan’s demography of 200 million (by 2015) has immense human potential. Its energetic youth is waiting to be tapped. The Muslim identity and culture synergize with numerous regions. Thirdly, Pakistan’s other assets include a long list of tangible or intangible factors.

Fourthly, Pakistan’s geopolitical situation is improving. Pakistan’s strategic and brotherly ally China is rising. USA is withdrawing from Afghanistan which should, however, rekindle friendly relations with America. Pakistan and Russia are befriending each other as well. Alongside peace talks, trade plans continue with India. Turkey, which is Pakistan’s fraternal ally, is also a rising power.

However, the internal dynamics of Pakistan present a different picture. The nation needs to be united; its political system reformed, economy built and elitism replaced by a welfare society. Militancy, law and order problems need to be resolved. The internal scene is often exploited by foreign hostile forces. In any event, Pakistan’s house needs to be put in order.

The question is what needs to be done and by whom? Pakistan needs to be reformed but who will do it? The conventional political parties with status quo mindsets claim it their democratic right. The change seeking political parties is the second group. Reform seekers form the third group. More revolutionary forces are likely to appear on the national scene in future.

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Conventional wisdom holds that a great majority of Pakistani people seek change. Real change can come only through reform. Moreover, before reforms are carried out the basic ingredient of unity has to be achieved or else reforms will not be worth the paper written on.

The political system of Pakistan has two major problems. It is divisive and elections are simply money based. A common perception is that an election costs Rs 10 crore as a conventional estimate. In that case 99.99 percent Pakistanis cannot even dream of fighting elections. It is election by the elite, of the elite, for the elite! Even if some from the middle class do make it, the overall system is elite based. Such a political system is a travesty of democracy. In a true republic, as per the constitution, Pakistan belongs to all the people of this country. Two hundred million Pakistanis by 2015 are shareholders and stakeholders.

Elections are not the question. Who gets elected is the question. Political reform in Pakistan must seek to unify not divide people. Difference of opinion does not mean war within Pakistan. The nation needs peace and unity at home. Secondly, unlimited money spent on politics must be controlled through legislation, media and public opinion building. A vibrant, expressive civil society can prove helpful. If a one dish limit can be placed on wedding meals, some financial limit should be imposed on election politics. Furthermore, foreign funding sources for politics in Pakistan need to be scrutinized. The Pakistani middle class must have opportunity to participate directly in politics. So a more balanced political order could emerge.

Pakistan’s woes emanate mainly from political problems. So it is essential that political reforms are carried out first. Only then will Pakistan be able to emerge as a great nation!

About the Author: The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. He is a regular contributor to The Fire Within

'Change we need' also published in Nation Monday, January 07, 2013

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Balochistan and the Pakistan Army

Brigadier Nadir Mir ®

Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”

The enemy in Baluchistan is neither the Baloch nor the Pakistan Army, but foreign hostile forces and their allies. The problem in Baluchistan is local sense of deprivation, alienation, grievances; cycle of violence, under development of a sparse demography spread over vast spaces and of course Geopolitics. Many Baloch claim to be fighting for their rights, a mini minority is either backed by foreign powers or seek their intervention.

The six points enunciated by Sardar Akhtar Mengal, need not be compared with Sheikh Mujeeb’s infamous six points. The environment in Baluchistan is pragmatically different from the tragedy of East Pakistan. Pakistan has come to stay much to the chagrin of its enemies. In fact, Pakistan will rise as a great nation. Those predicting Pakistan’s balkanization must be rebutted vigorously. By the same token, irate and aggrieved Baloch must be welcomed back into national mainstream. The COAS has aptly and timely supported the political process (within constitution) for achieving peace in Baluchistan. The Pakistan Army and ISI while bravely defending Pakistan are keen to stabilize Baluchistan. The Army has launched and supported numerous economic developmental and educational programmes for Baluchistan which are creating a positive environment. Still the Baluchistan solution will involve other political forces as well.

Sardar Akhtar Mengal, Nawab Talal Bugti and other Baloch leaders have toured the country to muster support for their cause. Nawab Talal Bugti has repeatedly stressed on the loyalty of Baloch to Pakistan. Major political parties PML (N), PTI, JI and others have wisely embraced the Baloch Brothers. These are happy tidings and can help creating an environment leading to a remedy for the malaise in beautiful Baluchistan. The Supreme Court has to an extent accepted the Baloch petitions as an aggrieved party. Baloch grievances should be heard and resolved in Pakistan rather than in foreign courts and hostile lands.

The time has come to end the blame game and usher in tranquility in turbulent Baluchistan.  Nawab Talal Bugti, Sardar Ataullah Mengal, Sardar Akhtar Mengal and other veteran Baloch leaders must be supported in a national reconciliation effort.

 Baluchistan Geopolitics

Sinister forces appeared at work to sever Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan (called Seistan). This balkanization agenda is part of a larger Geopolitical design. An appropriate West Asian Strategy is being chiseled by hegemonic powers. Reportedly Nurudin Mengal from Pakistan and Naseer Balodi from Iran in a three day session recently briefed the EU Parliament. Both launched a tirade against Pakistan and Iran, plus pleaded for foreign intervention, (A La Libya, NATO style intervention?) Before that US Congress had introduced a bill to sever Baluchistan from Pakistan. Coming on its heels a UN mission on Baluchistan had even suggested disciplinary action against military officers for alleged excesses. These may be the contours of a foreign intervention case.

A part of the so called liberal media (foreign funded) in Pakistan and liberal puppets living on foreign dole are already blaming the Pakistani State. These Trojan Horse tactics in the information age smack of shaping the battle field. They aim to demonize Army, ISI, divide the people of Pakistan, create political confusion, galvanize terrorists so that mayhem abounds leading to a paralysis of state. After defaming and psychologically isolating the Army, ISI; the stage would be set for a Unilateral Declaration of Independence by a few foreign sponsored Baloch. Foreign forces could then be employed in intervention of Baluchistan.  

The Pakistan Army supported by all patriotic citizens must become pro-active for resolution of Baluchistan’s predicament.

Baluchistan Solution

A holistic solution for Baluchistan must include the following:

National Unity. The need of the hour is national unity and pragmatic solution for Baluchistan. Baloch leaders, major political parties, Supreme Court, Armed Forces, political government, media and civil society have to combine their efforts for a peaceful and prosperous Baluchistan. Pakistan and Baluchistan belong to all Pakistanis. All are responsible and accountable.

Reconciliation. Pakistan Army must take initiative along with Government efforts to accommodate the livid and afflict among the Baloch. PML (N) under the leadership of Mian Nawaz Shrif is most well placed to placate Baloch leaders. This scribe had suggested the same to Mian Nawaz Sharif in Gwadar Conference 2012.

Baloch Aspirations. The Baloch sense of injustice needs to be removed. All Baloch leaders and others in Pakistan seek justice for Nawab Akbar Bugti’s killing. The perception of injustice must be eradicated. The Baloch youth needs a special national package of free education and employment.

Economic Cycle. Baluchistan has numerous treasures which should benefit first the people of Baluchistan and then the rest of Pakistan. The greatest potential is in Gwadar concept amply highlighted in my book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’. This can bring prosperity and can change the destiny of the Baloch and all Pakistanis.

Security. The first act is to freeze the cycle of violence. An understanding based on reconciliation is the basis of security. While the army remains in its garrisons, the FC should be more biased towards the Western Borders. A new internal security force for Baluchistan may be considered with the bulk from Baloch areas.

Information Warfare. Pakistani media can help positively resolve Baluchistan by encouraging reconciliation with Baloch and discouraging foreign interference. The Pakistan Army can also further augment its information warfare capabilities. The ISPR has recently become more effective in projecting the army view point. It should concentrate more on Baluchistan solution with army’s positive contribution. The ISI while brilliantly guarding Pakistan needs to expose the foreign agendas and hostile agencies fishing in Baluchistan’s troubled waters. A serious effort to retrieve missing persons in Baluchistan must be well projected and presented.   

Blocking Foreign Interference. The Pakistan Army and the Foreign Office under the Government of Pakistan must present a unified case for blocking foreign interference in Baluchistan. All forms of foreign interference in Baluchistan to include propaganda, funding, training, arming of insurgents or succor for their leaders abroad etc must be dealt with firmly.

Even while blocking foreign interference in Baluchistan through all elements of national power, the key to peace in Baluchistan lies in national unity and reconciliation. All the Baloch have to be on board for prosperity and stability in the province. Baluchistan is as much part of Pakistan as Punjab or any other province. The Pakistan Army supported by the entire Pakistani Nation will defend Baluchistan like the rest of Pakistan.  

Brigadier Nadir Mir ® is a specialist on Geo Politics, specially with regard to Balochistan and Middle East. His articles frequently appear in The Fire Within.

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