Saturday, June 24, 2017

Next Gulf War – Iran

By Brigadier Nadir Mir

The Next Gulf War is about the Middle East Dominance. Qatar may be the Casus Belli of the Next War Iran or maybe not.

The Gulf has become the Centre of Gravity of Larger Middle East. Parts of the Middle East are Destroyed, parts in Turmoil and parts Opulent. Whoever controls the Gulf Region, controls Oil, Gas, influences Israel, Conservative Arab Monarchies or Revolutionary Iran. USA stands challenged; Russia is back and Non State Actors galore with ISIS – Daesh spreading. 

In 2011, I wrote an article published in Pravda Moscow. ‘Next War – Iran’. This was War between Israel and Iran which was averted! In my book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ published 2013, sub chapter was titled – ‘Iran on the March and Arab World Part Opulent Part Turmoil’. In 2015, I was invited from Pakistan to attend Manama Dialogue at Bahrain for Gulf Security, hosted by International Institute of Strategic Studies – one conclusion ‘Next Gulf War’ a matter of time. 

A complicated scenario because too many contenders with clashing and often unattainable aims. Many Gulf Commentators are biased and not pragmatic, only unbiased analysis can lead to positive outcome:

USA wants to retain Hegemony in the Gulf and Middle East which is slipping. American aim is to sell Massive Arms, (Military Industrial Complex), retain stable and free flow of Oil, Dollar Monopoly, Israel secure forever, and Arab Monarchies secure for now. Make America Rich Again by transferring part of the Gulf Wealth to USA. To secure Israel and Arab Monarchies, Check Russia, Iran is the Next War. Iran has recently rejected the US Dollar. This is crossing an American Red line as US Dollar Hegemony leads to Global Dominance. Kissinger can hear the Drums of War, since he set the Drum Beat – Petrodollars in the 1970s. Saddam tried Euros in place of Dollars. Gaddafi wanted Dinars to replace Dollars, their Fate is History.

Iran wants to be the Leader of the Gulf and the Middle East. It is a Rejectionist State which wants to destroy Israel and oust America from the Gulf and Middle East. Iran is in clash with Sunni Gulf Arab Monarchies. A Combined Clash of Historical Arab – Persian and Current Monarchies – Revolutionaries. Iran is united with fervor, Motivated to fight, Excels in Asymmetrical and Missile War. Backed by Russia to an extent and with Local Militant, Non State Actor Allies. It is a Proud and Cultured Nation, however, lacks the resources to dominate the region. If an all out war breaks out it could inflict Heavy Damage but will come to Grief against the combined resources of Saudi – GCC/Allies, Israel, US, EU. 
Saudi Arabia – GCC/Allies

Saudi Arabia considers itself the Natural Leader of the Gulf and Middle East. The Obama Presidency Cool Relations have been rekindled by warmth of Trump Administration. President Trump’s Team and Saudi Arabia/GCC less Qatar are determined to halt Iran in its tracks. Wrestle back Dominance of the Gulf and Middle East from Persian to Arab hands. It uses its endless Petrodollars and Bedouin Wisdom to achieve Geopolitical Ends. It cannot alone defeat Iran, or dominate the region, and needs Allies. Considers the Pakistan Military as the most Powerful Regional Force and seeks its Support.

China, EU and Japan all retain key economic interests in the Gulf and the Larger Middle East. They may not be Direct Military Participants except NATO in case of a Larger Iran Conflict.

Turkey: Aspiring Leader of Muslim World. A Rising Economy of a Beautiful County. Over all has a balancing role, closer to Pakistan. Its biggest fear is Kurdistan. It will position itself in a manner to influence all sides seeking peace in the region. 

Russia is back in the Gulf – Middle East Game and its making up for lost time since Soviet Union Days. Russia will support Iran to embroil USA in another Protracted and Bloody War. Draining America and forcing its withdrawal from Gulf – Middle East or seek concessions in Europe and elsewhere. Russia lacks the resources to dominate Gulf – Middle East itself, but it has positioned itself as a Geo strategic Player in the Region.

Israel considers Iran as the Existential Threat, aided by Allies Hezbullah and others. It is determined to destroy Iranian Nuclear Infrastructure and deny Iran the Bomb at all cost. It has been preparing for Iran War with Air, Missile and Submarines Attacks. (Read detailed article, ‘Next War Iran’ published in Pravda Moscow by Brigadier Nadir Mir – 2011 on Google). Obama Presidency never gave Green Light for Israel’s Strike. Now Israel feels emboldened by President Trump’s Policy and seeks cooperative relations with Arab States to Defang Iran. 

Daesh and Non State ActorsMajor State Actors are supportive of their own suited Non State Actors in the Gulf – Middle East. However, though squeezed on many fronts, Daesh is spreading out for Gulf, Larger Middle East and other parts of the world. War and destruction is the catalyst for more militancy and terrorism.

Pakistan should make efforts for Gulf Peace and Avoid War. Mediation along with Turkey maybe helpful. Pakistan must Defend Saudi Arabia, (more so, the Holy Sites) but not fight Iran. A Delicate Diplomatic Tightrope. Pakistan should supply humanitarian aid through Pakistan border to Iran. Retain leverage on both sides and coordinate with China, Russia and USA for Peace. Pakistan cannot remain so called Neutral or Aloof in a Major War on its Western door step which can threaten CPEC – Gwadar. (With 4 million Pakistanis sending remittance from the Gulf and oil flow essential for Pakistan’s Economy). 

In my article, ‘Pakistan New Gulf Player at Gwadar’, it had been highlighted that Pakistan’s role is Crucial for Gulf Peace. Pakistan has critical Geo-economic and Geo-strategic interests in the Gulf. Visits and role of Pakistan's Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is Essential and Commendable for securing Pakistan’s Interests. Pakistan must also monitor Indian Developments in the Gulf as Indians are already positioning themselves in Afghanistan. Pakistan should also be prepared against possible Indian Misadventures during a Major Gulf War – Crisis.

About the author:
Brigadier Nadir Mir (R), Soldier – Scholar – Reformer 
Author of the books “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’
He is the Chairman of Pakistan National Reform Movement (PNRM).
PNR Movement is Nationalist (Pro Pakistan) and Reformist (Pro People).
Unite Pakistan, Defend Pakistan, Reform Pakistan 

Photo: Pixabay
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