US Failures in Afghanistan - what to do?

The biggest threat to US National Security is strategic miscalculation. In Afghanistan, the battle was an internally oriented conflict; but it had a confused and open ended definition to it. The US insisted in calling it COIN (counter Insurgency Operations) when it was not. The US method to madness unfolded from one dimension to another, ignoring geography, history, culture and ideology. In their enthusiasm the United States jumped from one plan to another in search of strategy as they lumbered on, never listened to anyone while they continued to do what they thought was the way forward. Ignorance and arrogance never go together. The result that with total air supremacy, against an enemy that had no tanks, artillery or air defence; the United States manged to put themselves into a losing situation. 

The only worthwhile ally, Pakistan, who could have helped the US win this conflict and bring stability to Afghanistan was cast aside and the alliance was broken through a successful man oeuvre of manipulation by an enemy that would have made Napoleon Bonaparte swell with pride. Breaking an alliance was Napoleon’s forte and was an obvious first step that an enemy would have taken in this case too. Who was this enemy, other than our very own? The US, leader of the world, commander of all Armies now cannot whine and blame others for their own failures, they must now behave the part and take responsibility of all that came to pass. It comes with the leadership role that the US loves to play. Well here are some very obvious things that need to be explained:

1. Political

• Removal of the Taliban government, which had a Pushtun leaning. The Pushtuns represent about 50 to 60 % of the Afghan population.
• Replacing them with a Northern Alliance biased government that represented less than 40% of the people.
• Introduced a universally unacceptable constitution, hoping that it would catch on. It did not.
• Tried a reconciliation process; top down approach.
• Tried integration; bottoms up approach.
• Wanted to negotiate with the Taliban but never considered speaking to the Pushtuns. The former believe in an ideological discourse, the latter a political one. Though most Taliban are Pushtun, but a strictly Pushtun dialogue would keep out the foreign spoilers.
• Assassinated any Taliban leader willing to talk through drone attacks.
• Insisted that Pakistan arrange the negotiation and when they did, destroyed their credibility by killing Taliban commanders in Pakistan who had been asked to come for the negotiation. 
• Setting up a ‘Unity Government’; it’s neither here or there and remains a confused, artificial structure that has no jurisdiction beyond the precincts of Kabul.
• Out of the three parties, the Taliban, the government and the US, the weakest is the government. That is why this government is probably the only known government to invite a foreign occupation, because it lacks in capacity, authority and legality.

2. Military

1. Based operations on garrisoning troops. Failed to secure lines of communication and relied on air rather ground.
2. Lost liberty of action and freedom of movement by not dominating spaces.
3. Continuity in such operations is necessary and not a choice. The US rotated troops every year and as such were never familiar with the terrain or the environment.
4. The limited understanding of the combat zone cannot be made up through ‘google maps’.
5. Operations of this kind are based on accurate intel. The US depended on Northern Alliance intel and interpreters. These people let their hatred for Pakistan take them away from any meaningful information. Salalah type operations were the product of misleading the US troops.
6. Raising an Army in a few years is unrealistic, it resulted in the highest rate of desertions and causalities. The NDS has still no capacity to stand ground regardless of the ‘feel good’ propaganda emanating from TOLO News. 
7. The two areas that needed US presence was ignored despite making promises, i.e. Nuristan/Kunar valley, where the US pulled out unilaterally and Paktia where the US always complained of cross border Haqqani battle groups moving into their area.
8. Not shutting down mobile networks along the Afghan Border despite requests to do so. SIMs are still functional while Pakistan had shut theirs down a while ago. Not blocking Thuriaya Communication which is based in Dubai and can easily be controlled.
9. Not supporting Pakistani Operation in North Waziristan with a US brigade during the surge to block the border though having promised to do so through four different commands. This caused the ‘revolving door’ effect. 
10. Suffering reverses by small tactical groups and blaming Pakistan instead of holding enquiries as to what went wrong. We have not heard a single case of tactical failure being attributed to incompetence or bad procedures. It’s as if no American can do wrong, though the US have lost this war and all because of the enemy!!! A really humorous conclusion.

3. Corruption

• Please read the SIGAR report. 
• A drug trade developed under the nose of ISAF that is now doing roaring business of anything up to $80 Billion annually. No one likes to quote these figures and everyone looks the other way as if it is inconsequential. Let it be clearly understood, the Taliban are being resourced by this drug money.
• Corruption in the government has caused the people to be highly critical of it.

4. Miscellaneous 

• The ISAF found it easier to justify their failures by blaming Pakistan. The lies were repeated and broadcasted so often that the US and their Coalition partners now believe it to be true.
• Losing about 50% of the space in Afghanistan where there is no government writ. The Taliban have signed $3Billion worth of contracts with the Chinese. Why would the Taliban need space in Pakistan when the resources and the area is available to them right there?
• Bringing in India, an enemy state into Afghanistan, and then expecting Pakistan to celebrate it.
• Resisting Pakistan’s attempt at border fencing when the charge against Pakistan was cross border movement.
• Insisting that Pakistan keep the millions of Afghan Refugees, whereas Pakistan has been continually complaining of the security problems because of it.
• Blaming Pakistan for the indigenous movement in Kashmir; singing India’s song!!
• Stating that the CPEC route was going through a disputed area, whereas, such a statement was highly uncalled for.
• Inserting ISIL into Afghanistan to challenge the Taliban. Bad idea. Russia has openly stated that they support the Taliban because of this and so do Iran. The US still remains conveniently quiet on the Russo Shura and the Iranian Shura.

5. Conclusions

• That Pakistan be coerced into fighting the war for the US and ‘do more’. It is clear that it is no longer about the War on Terror but more about containing China, disrupting CPEC and supporting India. Pakistan needs to be beaten into submission in phase 1.
• Pakistan cannot find it within itself to support the US. There is not a single reason, moral, political or military where Pakistan sees its national interest being served by cooperating with the US.
• It has now come full circle and Pakistan’s national interest can only be served by a comprehensive defeat of the US in Afghanistan if things do jot change for the better. There was a time when US success was in line with Pakistan's interest; not any more.
• That the US public are not aware of what all has happened or is happening and need to be informed of how the US have bungled here in Afghanistan.
• That a public joint enquiry is recommended where US and Pakistani military commanders be questioned and must be directed to explain their positions during their respective tenures. It is guaranteed to be very entertaining. 
• The people of the United States must restrain and contain their government in taking up a highly immoral position. If democracy has any substance to it, then a mechanism has to be put into place where the other side of the story is heard as well. Do the Americans have the courage to hear the truth?

6. Future

• If Pakistan stands its ground, the US and Pakistan can improve their relations though it will take a while that both would trust each other.
• The US can be part of CPEC rather than resist it. Becoming a strategic partner with China would make better sense now than becoming a competitor in a world/region where the US is a stranger in town.
• This could be of immense value to Afghanistan as well and they too could benefit from CPEC.
• Understandably India would not get what it is looking for, but then, should the US make a fool of itself in support of India?
• The US can only benefit fro  m the current crisis by being the leader it ought to be, having the moral courage to call a spade a spade, and the wisdom to promote stability rather than chaos.

About the Author: 

Lieutenant general Tariq Khan (Retired), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), winner of the Sword of Honour from Pakistan Military Academy, graduate of the prestigious National Defense University of Pakistan, has a long experience of fighting the War on Terror in the tribal areas of Pakistan and along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. He has extensive interaction with the allied commanders employed in Afghanistan and working with top US military elite at CENTCOM. He has been one of the few Pakistan Army officers awarded with the Legion of Merit by the USA. He also has the honour of commanding one of the strike corps of Pakistan Army. He is a well read military analyst who often shares his view points, incisive and thought provoking analysis on national and international affairs. His views on international / national affairs can be read on Facebook

(The views expressed above are personal of the author and do not necessarily express the opinion of the admin of this blog)

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What must Pakistan do after Donald Trump's Tweet

The recent controversial tweet by the US president Trump against Pakistan seems a one man response as it seems that he stands alone while many others in the US tend to support Pakistan's stance and its countless efforts and sacrifices, both in human losses and material damage, to fight a war on terror that has never been its own. Pakistan has taken a heavy toll  after 'invasion' by US troops of Afghanistan as a collateral damage and effect. 

Now that the US has taken a very serious stance against Pakistan despite Pakistan have always been doing more and more as demanded by Pakistan and stopping all sorts of aid to Pakistan, Lieutenant General Tariq Khan (retired), a seasoned veteran who has had a front line experience of fighting the terrorists in the areas adjoining Afghanistan, speaks out what others in US think about Pakistan and what should Pakistan do to safeguard its interests:

Hillary Clinton said on record before the Congress that Pakistan had been let down by the US, David Petraeus, ex Director of the CIA said there was no evidence of Pakistan’s role in destabilizing Afghanistan, Chuck Hagel, while he was Secretary De fence stated, that India creates problems in Pakistan, Mattis the current Secretary defence, warned India to cool down in their support to the TTP. These were all heavy weights and there were others too in the US administration, military system and Congress who have tried to clear Pakistan’s name. It had no effect. Yet our own stalwarts are trying to find ways and means to ‘explain’ to the US government what our real position is. Others call it a ‘misunderstanding’. Such foolish scraping and fawning is probably unique to our very own alone. 

It must be clearly understood that the US is neither searching for a clarification nor is interested in seeing one. The US has decided to embark on a course of action and its decision cannot be sacrificed at the altar of the truth or reality on the ground. With a maniac as the US President, the ‘establishment’ is having a field day as they project personal agendas and spit in the face of the world. The insignificant Dana Rohrabacher and Ted Poe types find their relevance today in discovering a cause in the separation of Baluchistan. We are unreliable, we are two faced. Our stalwarts scream that we are not, our parliament is offended, our ministers are angry, everyone is disappointed and the country is shocked.

First of all, the Untied States has only done what it always does, abandon Pakistan when Pakistan is no longer needed. This should be no surprise to anyone and this fact should be clearly noted, underscored and advertised, only so that our future leaders can get the message and learn from history. Secondly, so far the United States has withdrawn monetary assistance; how can we demand that they support us financially. That is their prerogative and if they have decided to stop supporting us, why are we crying hoarse, it is neither our right nor are we employed by them. Live with it.

Now we come to this nonsense that this was not our war and that we fought for the United States. Please take into cognizance, I have been in combat the longest and during that time we cleared 35,000 sq kms out of 48,000 sq kms. We did not do this for the United States, the Indus Highway was closed, the Peshawar Airport was shut down, the KP Government was about to shift to Abbottabad, the businesses in Peshawar were moving out, our Agencies were no go, Bajaur had an Afghan flag and Afghan currency. We made deals and negotiated ourselves into every corner hoping that it would bring peace. We even disgracefully surrendered the people of Swat to Sufi Muhammad in the hope that we could ‘give peace a chance’. I saw people then shivering and quivering when militants entered Margalla Hills. 

With short memories we forget the APS carnage, we forget the attacks on our airbases and the naval Base. We ignore the attack on GHQ, we look the other way as the airport in Karachi was hit. We then have been saying that this was all because of joining the US war in Afghanistan and was the product of our policies? We cannot be more wrong, how does one explain the 2000 sectarian deaths in Pakistan before 9/11? Besides, despite being members of the United Nations and having signed the unanimous UN Resolution 1377 of 12th November 2001 which should be read by all, ours was the only Army that had no one under US Command and we never operated beyond our own territory. What do these critics want that Pakistan should have fought on behalf of the Taliban?

After all, what were the demands of the Pakistan Government to all foreigners in Pakistani territory? It was to register with the authorities, settle into designated areas and disarm or then report to centers for repatriation to their respective countries. Was this unfair? Not only did they refuse but insisted on waging war from Pakistani territory when the State had decided not to engage in Afghanistan. They said it was their right to fight a Jihad in Afghanistan. The whole story seems upside down. It’s these foreigners and our very own sold out militants who connived together for pelf and place that brought the war to Pakistan. Now we hypocritically say we have sacrificed 70,000 lives; did we do it for the United States? No, these lives were lost in the battle for Pakistan, as we secured our country against a Raw initiated insurgency and a CIA supported terrorism. We must not belittle our achievements which were the highest in the world just to win a cheap and irrelevant argument. We secured 3500 Kms of Lines of Communications, we established the writ of the government, we have cleared our areas of all militants and we did this for Pakistan and not the United States.

Our falling out with the United States is a function of a failed foreign policy. This was recognized time and again. A government without a foreign minister for four years allowed an Indian walk-over at the Capitol Hill. This has to be acknowledged and cannot be just brushed aside. Our PM, then, claimed he was the Foreign Minister, well then that’s where the buck stops. We had Haqqani as our ambassador, we had Fatmi as our advisor!!! We are further compromised because of the debt we have incurred, the money that we so wantonly stole and distributed amongst relatives and friends; that the very foundations of the State have been shaken up. The PM refused to even mention Kulbashan at the UN, Jindal turns up without a visa, Modi is invited to the PM’s house for a wedding. Well done!! Our leader entertains the enemies of the State even when they threaten to cut us into four pieces. This all then leads to the Dawn Leaks; an attempt to declare the Pakistan Army as a Terrorist Organization. Having gone through all this we are shocked when the US now withholds assistance!!!

Nowadays everyone (including me) seems to have some solution to the crisis we are going through. The diplomatic scene is out since we have nothing to offer and have exhausted any space we have had thanks to this highly incompetent government. Talking our way through in search of peace is exactly like surrendering to Sufi Muhammad in Swat. Nothing to talk about!! We need to first acquire the space for any meaningful talks. Just simply saying ‘let’s negotiate’, makes no sense and is not that easy. We are suffering the consequences of huge capacity issues in our government.

It is obvious that the US must be in the complete know that it is losing the war in Afghanistan on account of its own limited capacity and incompetence and that Pakistan is the least of the causes. Despite knowing this, it continually blames Pakistan and that serves two purposes, first, it creates a credible justification for US failure and secondly it provides the US a casus-bellie to prosecute Pakistan. It is important to understand as to why the US would want to bring pressure on to Pakistan and what are its objectives:
Regional Objectives:

• Contain Chinese economic growth.
• Challenge Russian military relevance.
• Observe Iran
• Retain regional influence through physical presence.
• Setup and support India as a proxy.
• Local Objectives. Since Pakistan is an obstacle because of CPEC and that it contains Indian influence, Pakistan has to be dealt with effectively first:
• Create conditions to denuclearize Pakistan.
• Scuttle the CPEC through Indian subversion in Baluchistan and GB.
• Reward India by allowing free license in Kashmir.
• Destabilize FATA and encourage Afghan claims using TTP and Daesh.

Conduct. To use incremental pressure, testing for effects.

• Impact on Pakistan’s economic vulnerability by withdrawing financial support and influencing international institutions for calling in the debt.
• Hoping the government would be willing to trade: financial relief for nuclear capping.
• Declare Pakistan Army a terrorist group and extend international travel bans on its personal.
• May step up drones attacks and encourage India to undertake ‘surgical strikes’ which India has already been claiming it has been doing. India thus already has a tacit approval of everyone to undertake such operations.
• Finding no credible response the US may extend bombing campaigns into settled areas with intent to create discord, lack of government writ and disharmony.
• Having created the chaos and instability, may undertake boots on ground operations and encourage separatist movements in Baluchistan and GB.

Pakistan’s responses. The first and foremost that people generally recommend is appeasement and an abject surrender. I may even go along with it, if it could save the State. It will not. The US and India will not be satisfied without attaining the objectives listed above. Thus diplomacy, talking etc. may sound good in a drawing room discussion, may prove that some of us more intellectual than the rest, but the fact of the matter is, that they will not resolve anything. Such peaceful gestures can only come after having created the grounds for diplomacy. Recommended response:

Immediate

• Reduce US presence in the country to a skeleton staff at the embassy.
• Kick out all US based NGOs.
• Renegotiate GLOCs (ground access to Afghanistan)

Concurrent

• Inform the Security Council that India by its own self-confessed statements has committed an act of war and that Pakistan retains the right to respond at a time and place of its own choosing.
• If India resorts to any more verbal surgical strikes, to physically respond in areas of Pathankot, Madhupur, Jammu etc.
• Also bring to the Security Council’s notice that US has threatened Pakistan militarily with unilateral action and that Pakistan has the right to self-defence.
• Inform Afghanistan that any act of hostility would trigger a response at Jalalabad, Kandahar, Kabul and Bagram.

Future

• Find common interest with Iran.
• Speed up Russo-Pak military collaboration.
• Enhance Chinese involvement along Kashmir.
• Begin an aggressive Kashmir campaign.
• Stock up on fuel and food starting now.
• Work out a debt retirement scheme through a credible and honest programme involving the people of Pakistan.
• Begin a proper accountability to bring closure to Memo gate, Dawn leaks, Kargil operations, Abbottabad Commission, theft and corruption.
• Structure a proper lobby team to build the country’s relevance and image

The US may not be ready for a physical fight beyond a certain escalation. Measured confrontation may force the US to step back. I used the term incremental pressure above. It was deliberate. At every stage where the US is not challenged, the pressure will shift and increase, step by step. By putting out our best foot we may be able to bring them to the table for talks which is what everyone wants. Talks are only done when there is mutual respect. No one respects a loser. For now its brinkmanship and we need to see who is going to blink first. 

If the US is willing to come to some understanding we can offer them assistance in an honourable withdrawal, a role in the CPEC, business opportunities in the country. It is not necessary to fight the US if it can be helped. However, acquiescing is not the answer and we must not sell our selves short as we usually do. We have to go through some difficult times but that is what nations are made up of; to stand up for themselves, their sovereignty and their independence. I am convinced if we stand up to the US our relations can improve. 

On the other hand, there is a lot of cleaning up to do at home as well, without which we can never be sovereign nation and first and foremost is to remove all maulvi influence. They shall never let this country be independent, self-sustaining and respectable. Religion has no place in the affairs of States and the sooner we realise this the quicker we shall be on the way to redemption. Catering to a belligerent but semi educated, opinionated preacher will always bring us into an ideological conflict not only amongst ourselves but with everyone around us. We shall be fighting a never ending Jihad. The best service we can do for Islam is to follow it in our individual sense and not pass judgments on others. Till religiosity is not removed from our political, administrative and diplomatic policies we shall always be hostage to the maulvi who has brought us to where we are.

About the Author: 

Lieutenant general Tariq Khan (Retired), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), winner of the Sword of Honour from Pakistan Military Academy, graduate of the prestigious National Defense University of Pakistan, has a long experience of fighting the War on Terror in the tribal areas of Pakistan and along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. He has extensive interaction with the allied commanders employed in Afghanistan and working with top US military elite at CENTCOM. He has been one of the few Pakistan Army officers awarded with the Legion of Merit by the USA. He also has the honour of commanding one of the strike corps of Pakistan Army. He is a well read military analyst who often shares his view points, incisive and thought provoking analysis on national and international affairs. His views on international / national affairs can be read on Facebook

(The views expressed above are personal of the author and do not necessarily express the opinion of the admin of this blog)
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US admits mistakes over killings of Pakistan troops

[ via Imposing Headlines ] 

The US military has admitted it bears significant responsibility for last month's air strike on the Afghan border that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. A Pentagon spokesman later expressed "deep regret" over the incident.

Coffins of the martyred Pakistan Army soldier (L) - Smoke from the destroyed Pakistan Army Posts attacked by NATO

A statement said US and Afghan troops acted in self defence, but conceded there had been a lack of proper co-ordination with Pakistani forces. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, US and Afghan commandos made a series of mistakes on 26 November.

They incorrectly concluded there were no Pakistani forces in the Afghan border area where the coalition was conducting an operation - which cleared the way for a Nato air strike that devastated Pakistani positions.

After the initial strike, the US compounded its mistake by providing inaccurate data to a Pakistani military representative at the border co-ordination centre, missing an opportunity to stop the fighting.

Read details at BBC News Asia

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NATO toning down the Deathly Air Attack on Pakistani check post “Grammatically”

It is just appalling and awesome – you kill people deliberately then “mince” your response in a manner that few can understand, thus confusing a majority.  The Saturday morning’s air attack on a Pakistani check post by NATO helicopters that left 26 dead and 14 wounded was a gruesome act by the so called “allies on the war of (t)error.”

Now instead of out rightly being apologetic of this shameful act of stabbing friends in darkness, the NATO is trying to use words that may confuse the readers and make them feel as if nothing much has happened. The ISAF spokesman uses the first confusing word of development of a “tactical situation” on ground, calling for close air support. Then it says it is “highly likely” that the air support “that was brought forward” caused the incident.

Brigadier Jacob, ISAF spokesman adds that he regrets the loss of life but cannot offer any apologies until the probe is completed.

On the other hand, US spokesman, quoting Ms Clinton and the US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff adds: "These US diplomatic and military leaders each stressed -- in addition to their sympathies and a commitment to review the circumstances of the incident -- the importance of the US-Pakistani partnership, which serves the mutual interests of our people," the US statement said.

If we recall, in a similar air raid in September last year, the same very words were used, and a “full investigation” was vowed by the US, NATO and ISAF, when Pakistan threatened to cut of LOC of NATO. But nothing conclusive came out and a mere apology was aptly worded to close off the case. Like was the case of notorious Raymond Davis, who brutally and cold bloodedly killed three Pakistanis in broad daylight in Lahore and was siphoned off the country with tacit deals and yet no inquiries were conducted against him. And even if some questioning was made, it was not made public.

The Saturday raid has left 26 families lamented for the rest of their lives. God knows how many women have been widowed or how many children, may be some unborn, have been orphaned. Even those who are injured must be in pretty bad shape. May be many of them have lost their limbs forever or have deep scars, never to be healed.

This confusing War of (T)error continues with more casualties in Pakistan than in Afghanistan or of NATO and ISAF troops. While Pakistan has done much more than it should have, it is still being pressed to do more, even more and still more every day. How can a force fight on when its own ranks are being killed by the forces they are supporting?

The outrage by Pakistan is very obvious and logical. The rise of Taliban is a direct outcome of the NATO invasion of Afghanistan. The US having found its inability to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan is already packing off and in a hurry to leave war torn Afghanistan before it becomes another Vietnam for the USA. And when US exits, it leaves behind a more shattered and unstable Afghanistan than it was before US involvement in the region.

Its time now that our politicians sit down together and work out a clear cut approach on our involvement in this nonsense war and give its armed forces a clear cut mandate to retaliate if such like incidents happen again. There is no fun of calling emergency meetings every time such incidents take place and then hurriedly buy an apology from a low US official and start helping the NATO again. Let us for the sake of our future generations take decisions that are taken keeping in view the aspirations of our people and ensuring integrity of our country.

Let not mere words, articulately worded, tacitly framed, fool us every time an incident involving the national integrity of Pakistan takes place.

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Biased Policy Paradigm

Pakistan is fighting a war of terror or I may say war of error at the behest of the USA since the shady 9/11 event. And in doing so, many fine officers and men of Pakistan Army and countless innocent and humble civilians have succumbed to this erroneous war for the sake of someone else. The USA in return has pumped in billions of dollar to boost the military muscle of the Pakistan army that is required for the success of the war and easing pressure on the ISAF, and more so the US troops in Afghanistan.

The USA despite many claims and promises has yet to draw a road map to industries the troubled northern areas where militancy germinates because of poverty and lack of job opportunities. The unemployed youth are thus recruited by the militant organizations and made to die in suicide attacks and fight their own brethren.

But when the US president visits India, it announces deals worth $10 billion to India which will provide jobs to some 50,000 Indian workers. I don’t envy that since the USA has long lasting friendly relations with India, being the biggest democracy in the world and an old pal. My only disappointment is that had similar, even smaller gestures, made for Pakistan, specially in the recruitment areas of the militants over the past ten years, the situation would have been far different and better today.

The battle of winning the hearts and minds of the people through economic reforms is much easier to win rather than firing missiles and making people more hostile and angry, rather than being made friendly. Perhaps the USA wants to keep Pakistan embroiled in this war for its own long term goals in the area. That is why instead of making friends, it is making more enemies here. Our policy makers and those sitting in the comfortable air-conditioned offices in Islamabad, who get to visit USA very often on official visits, fail to raise their voice to fight the menace with a different strategy rather than that of dumping explosives on the “suspected targets.”

We have already run short of time to review our policy paradigm and to insist on USA to change it for better rather than for worse. Let us not have different and biased policies for an old bigger friend and a fragile small “friend” being used in own interests only. If we continue to sit idle and keep getting aid that has its indirect use for the US, there would be no let up in incidents like suicide bombings and drone attacks inside Pakistan.

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