Thursday, March 7, 2019

The Real Lessons of Indo-Pak Tension 2019 from the pen of a Veteran

Without going into needless verbosity, here in bullets is my opinion about the recent Indo-Pak flareup. 
1. Pakistan has won the first round hands down both militarily and in international perception. Not only that, Modi's folly has brought the Kashmir issue back on the world stage slam bang. It needs an urgent settlement.
2. Modi's status as the leader of the largest democracy stands eroded while Pakistan's PM is overnight being seen as a statesman. Pak leadership must continue to speak softly but carry a big stick.
3. India has to learn not to give knee-jerk responses to isolated terrorist occurrences. They invariably end up with egg on their faces. In the end, talk-talk is better than war-war.
4. That Pulwama was an inside job is fast becoming known. Regardless, Pakistan must finally, and conclusively, wipe out the home grown Jihadis. Their time, if there ever was one, is far gone now. This cannot be overstated.

5. India's creaking and rusted military machine stands badly exposed. Even if they were to replace all the junk now, it would be years before they can field the new replacements by which time Pakistan would be at an even farther milestone of preparedness. We must keep the edge no matter what.
6. To win his upcoming elections, Modi by now is too far committed down the road of belligerence. Expecting him to withdraw completely means a political suicide for him. He would thus keep the mercury bobbing up and down till Indian elections are over. Pakistan, therefore, needs to keep its guard up.
7. Pakistan's CPEC is a real thorn in the Indian rib-cage because the greatest power imbalance between the two countries lies in their economies. CPEC will tend to bridge that gap, something that gives the Indians cramps in the gut. Keep CPEC going at all costs.
8. Finally, the muffled nuclear saber-rattling by Pakistan gave a very loud and clear message. In case it came to an all out shooting war and Pakistan's very existence gets threatened, our hands will reach for the red no-no button before the Indians'.....the horrendous aftermath for a billion and a half human beings not withstanding. It should run a chill down the collective spines of the regional leadership.
Needless to say even wars in the end lead to talks. Why take the war route at all.

About the author Anwar Hussain: The author has studied at PAF College Sargodha and has been part of Pakistan Air Force. From Peshawar, Pakistan, lives in Mississauga, Ontario
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